Trader consensus on Polymarket implies over 50% probability of no new UK Prime Minister in 2026, reflecting Keir Starmer's survival of earlier leadership pressures in February and expectations he will weather anticipated Labour losses in May local elections across England, Scotland, and Wales without triggering a party coup or general election before 2029. Angela Rayner's 18.5% odds stem from her mid-March speeches warning Labour is "running out of time" under Starmer, critiques of "un-British" immigration reforms, and a new podcast positioning her as a left-wing alternative, drawing union support and cabinet echoes like Wes Streeting's comments despite Starmer allies' backlash. Lower probabilities for Ed Miliband, Streeting, and others highlight limited momentum amid fiscal constraints and reshuffle rumors, with King's Speech post-elections as a key upcoming test.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2026년 차기 총리 없음 53%
앤젤라 레이너 19%
에드 밀리밴드 4.6%
웨스 스트리팅 5%
$4,547,348 거래량
$4,547,348 거래량
2026년 차기 총리 없음
53%
앤젤라 레이너
19%
에드 밀리밴드
5%
웨스 스트리팅
5%
나이절 파라지
3%
루퍼트 로우
3%
앤디 버넘
2%
샤바나 마무드
1%
이베트 쿠퍼
1%
알 칸즈
1%
루시 파월
1%
레이첼 리브스
<1%
데이비드 래미
<1%
케미 바데녹
<1%
브리짓 필립슨
<1%
대런 존스
<1%
보리스 존슨
<1%
에드 데이비
<1%
로버트 제너릭
<1%
제임스 클레벌리
<1%
2026년 차기 총리 없음 53%
앤젤라 레이너 19%
에드 밀리밴드 4.6%
웨스 스트리팅 5%
$4,547,348 거래량
$4,547,348 거래량
2026년 차기 총리 없음
53%
앤젤라 레이너
19%
에드 밀리밴드
5%
웨스 스트리팅
5%
나이절 파라지
3%
루퍼트 로우
3%
앤디 버넘
2%
샤바나 마무드
1%
이베트 쿠퍼
1%
알 칸즈
1%
루시 파월
1%
레이첼 리브스
<1%
데이비드 래미
<1%
케미 바데녹
<1%
브리짓 필립슨
<1%
대런 존스
<1%
보리스 존슨
<1%
에드 데이비
<1%
로버트 제너릭
<1%
제임스 클레벌리
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies over 50% probability of no new UK Prime Minister in 2026, reflecting Keir Starmer's survival of earlier leadership pressures in February and expectations he will weather anticipated Labour losses in May local elections across England, Scotland, and Wales without triggering a party coup or general election before 2029. Angela Rayner's 18.5% odds stem from her mid-March speeches warning Labour is "running out of time" under Starmer, critiques of "un-British" immigration reforms, and a new podcast positioning her as a left-wing alternative, drawing union support and cabinet echoes like Wes Streeting's comments despite Starmer allies' backlash. Lower probabilities for Ed Miliband, Streeting, and others highlight limited momentum amid fiscal constraints and reshuffle rumors, with King's Speech post-elections as a key upcoming test.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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