Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87.5% implied probability for U.S. annexation of any territory in 2026, driven by stalled early-year momentum on Greenland rhetoric without substantive progress. President Trump's January tariff threats against Denmark prompted Rep. Randy Fine's Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act, but the bill remains unadvanced in Congress amid firm rejections from Greenlanders—76% opposed in polls—and Danish officials emphasizing sovereignty. A subsequent U.S.-Denmark framework deal de-escalated tensions, yielding no treaty negotiations or military signals. Structural barriers, including required two-thirds Senate ratification for territorial acquisition and NATO ally frictions, reinforce improbability, with no recent catalysts in the past 30 days to shift odds. Late-breaking diplomacy or unforeseen conflicts could alter dynamics, though traders see low risk through December.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$20,154 거래량
$20,154 거래량
2026.12.31
$20,154 거래량
$20,154 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87.5% implied probability for U.S. annexation of any territory in 2026, driven by stalled early-year momentum on Greenland rhetoric without substantive progress. President Trump's January tariff threats against Denmark prompted Rep. Randy Fine's Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act, but the bill remains unadvanced in Congress amid firm rejections from Greenlanders—76% opposed in polls—and Danish officials emphasizing sovereignty. A subsequent U.S.-Denmark framework deal de-escalated tensions, yielding no treaty negotiations or military signals. Structural barriers, including required two-thirds Senate ratification for territorial acquisition and NATO ally frictions, reinforce improbability, with no recent catalysts in the past 30 days to shift odds. Late-breaking diplomacy or unforeseen conflicts could alter dynamics, though traders see low risk through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ET
거래량
$20,154종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87.5% implied probability for U.S. annexation of any territory in 2026, driven by stalled early-year momentum on Greenland rhetoric without substantive progress. President Trump's January tariff threats against Denmark prompted Rep. Randy Fine's Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act, but the bill remains unadvanced in Congress amid firm rejections from Greenlanders—76% opposed in polls—and Danish officials emphasizing sovereignty. A subsequent U.S.-Denmark framework deal de-escalated tensions, yielding no treaty negotiations or military signals. Structural barriers, including required two-thirds Senate ratification for territorial acquisition and NATO ally frictions, reinforce improbability, with no recent catalysts in the past 30 days to shift odds. Late-breaking diplomacy or unforeseen conflicts could alter dynamics, though traders see low risk through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$20,154종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87.5% implied probability for U.S. annexation of any territory in 2026, driven by stalled early-year momentum on Greenland rhetoric without substantive progress. President Trump's January tariff threats against Denmark prompted Rep. Randy Fine's Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act, but the bill remains unadvanced in Congress amid firm rejections from Greenlanders—76% opposed in polls—and Danish officials emphasizing sovereignty. A subsequent U.S.-Denmark framework deal de-escalated tensions, yielding no treaty negotiations or military signals. Structural barriers, including required two-thirds Senate ratification for territorial acquisition and NATO ally frictions, reinforce improbability, with no recent catalysts in the past 30 days to shift odds. Late-breaking diplomacy or unforeseen conflicts could alter dynamics, though traders see low risk through December.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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