Trader consensus assigns a 77.5% implied probability to no U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, as recent military actions—such as the January special operation capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and March strikes in Ecuador against drug cartels—fall short of the market's criteria for a "military offensive intended to establish control over land territory." The Trump administration's "Shield of the Americas" summit on March 7 emphasized multilateral coalitions, urging regional militaries to lead lethal operations against narco-terrorists, while U.S. efforts prioritize targeted strikes, sanctions, and joint exercises like Operation Southern Seas over unilateral occupations. With no announcements of ground troop deployments for territorial control and focus shifting to hemispheric security partnerships, traders see low risk of escalation before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$206,929 거래량
$206,929 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$206,929 거래량
$206,929 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus assigns a 77.5% implied probability to no U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, as recent military actions—such as the January special operation capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and March strikes in Ecuador against drug cartels—fall short of the market's criteria for a "military offensive intended to establish control over land territory." The Trump administration's "Shield of the Americas" summit on March 7 emphasized multilateral coalitions, urging regional militaries to lead lethal operations against narco-terrorists, while U.S. efforts prioritize targeted strikes, sanctions, and joint exercises like Operation Southern Seas over unilateral occupations. With no announcements of ground troop deployments for territorial control and focus shifting to hemispheric security partnerships, traders see low risk of escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
마켓 개설일: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
거래량
$206,929종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus assigns a 77.5% implied probability to no U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, as recent military actions—such as the January special operation capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and March strikes in Ecuador against drug cartels—fall short of the market's criteria for a "military offensive intended to establish control over land territory." The Trump administration's "Shield of the Americas" summit on March 7 emphasized multilateral coalitions, urging regional militaries to lead lethal operations against narco-terrorists, while U.S. efforts prioritize targeted strikes, sanctions, and joint exercises like Operation Southern Seas over unilateral occupations. With no announcements of ground troop deployments for territorial control and focus shifting to hemispheric security partnerships, traders see low risk of escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
거래량
$206,936종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 77.5% implied probability to no U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, as recent military actions—such as the January special operation capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and March strikes in Ecuador against drug cartels—fall short of the market's criteria for a "military offensive intended to establish control over land territory." The Trump administration's "Shield of the Americas" summit on March 7 emphasized multilateral coalitions, urging regional militaries to lead lethal operations against narco-terrorists, while U.S. efforts prioritize targeted strikes, sanctions, and joint exercises like Operation Southern Seas over unilateral occupations. With no announcements of ground troop deployments for territorial control and focus shifting to hemispheric security partnerships, traders see low risk of escalation before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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