Trump's approval rating in his second term has declined steadily from an initial 47% in early 2025 to averages of 36-40% by August 2026, with recent polls showing figures as low as 36% amid broad disapproval on multiple fronts. The U.S. military actions against Iran, which escalated from late February 2026, have weighed heavily on sentiment due to rising costs, casualties, and public opposition, coinciding with weaker economic perceptions including inflation and energy prices. Traders assessing the year's peak will watch for any resolution in Iran negotiations, midterm election dynamics in November 2026, or shifts in handling of trade, immigration, and domestic policy that could lift support from current levels. Historical patterns suggest approval can fluctuate with major events, though sustained headwinds have kept recent readings near term lows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 44%
6%
↑ 45%
6%
↑ 46%
11%
↑ 47%
18%
↑ 48%
7%
↑ 49%
4%
↑ 50%
5%
$7,070 Vol.
↑ 44%
$3,042 Vol.
6%
↑ 45%
$279 Vol.
6%
↑ 46%
$910 Vol.
11%
↑ 47%
$468 Vol.
18%
↑ 48%
$709 Vol.
7%
↑ 49%
$596 Vol.
4%
↑ 50%
$1,067 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.Trump's approval rating in his second term has declined steadily from an initial 47% in early 2025 to averages of 36-40% by August 2026, with recent polls showing figures as low as 36% amid broad disapproval on multiple fronts. The U.S. military actions against Iran, which escalated from late February 2026, have weighed heavily on sentiment due to rising costs, casualties, and public opposition, coinciding with weaker economic perceptions including inflation and energy prices. Traders assessing the year's peak will watch for any resolution in Iran negotiations, midterm election dynamics in November 2026, or shifts in handling of trade, immigration, and domestic policy that could lift support from current levels. Historical patterns suggest approval can fluctuate with major events, though sustained headwinds have kept recent readings near term lows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$7,070End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.Trump's approval rating in his second term has declined steadily from an initial 47% in early 2025 to averages of 36-40% by August 2026, with recent polls showing figures as low as 36% amid broad disapproval on multiple fronts. The U.S. military actions against Iran, which escalated from late February 2026, have weighed heavily on sentiment due to rising costs, casualties, and public opposition, coinciding with weaker economic perceptions including inflation and energy prices. Traders assessing the year's peak will watch for any resolution in Iran negotiations, midterm election dynamics in November 2026, or shifts in handling of trade, immigration, and domestic policy that could lift support from current levels. Historical patterns suggest approval can fluctuate with major events, though sustained headwinds have kept recent readings near term lows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Volume
$7,070End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's approval rating in his second term has declined steadily from an initial 47% in early 2025 to averages of 36-40% by August 2026, with recent polls showing figures as low as 36% amid broad disapproval on multiple fronts. The U.S. military actions against Iran, which escalated from late February 2026, have weighed heavily on sentiment due to rising costs, casualties, and public opposition, coinciding with weaker economic perceptions including inflation and energy prices. Traders assessing the year's peak will watch for any resolution in Iran negotiations, midterm election dynamics in November 2026, or shifts in handling of trade, immigration, and domestic policy that could lift support from current levels. Historical patterns suggest approval can fluctuate with major events, though sustained headwinds have kept recent readings near term lows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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