NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system continuously tracks known near-Earth objects and currently lists no objects with meaningful impact probability through 2026 or beyond, consistent with the 73.5% market-implied odds against a 5 kt or larger strike. A 5 kt airburst typically requires a roughly 5–15 meter object, events that occur on decadal timescales but have produced no confirmed cases yet this year amid routine small-fireball detections. All documented 2026 close approaches remain safe flybys at lunar distances or greater, with orbital refinements eliminating any early uncertainty. Ongoing wide-field surveys further reduce the chance of an undetected impactor large enough to reach that energy threshold before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$311,320 Wol.
$311,320 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$311,320 Wol.
$311,320 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system continuously tracks known near-Earth objects and currently lists no objects with meaningful impact probability through 2026 or beyond, consistent with the 73.5% market-implied odds against a 5 kt or larger strike. A 5 kt airburst typically requires a roughly 5–15 meter object, events that occur on decadal timescales but have produced no confirmed cases yet this year amid routine small-fireball detections. All documented 2026 close approaches remain safe flybys at lunar distances or greater, with orbital refinements eliminating any early uncertainty. Ongoing wide-field surveys further reduce the chance of an undetected impactor large enough to reach that energy threshold before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Wolumen
$311,320Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system continuously tracks known near-Earth objects and currently lists no objects with meaningful impact probability through 2026 or beyond, consistent with the 73.5% market-implied odds against a 5 kt or larger strike. A 5 kt airburst typically requires a roughly 5–15 meter object, events that occur on decadal timescales but have produced no confirmed cases yet this year amid routine small-fireball detections. All documented 2026 close approaches remain safe flybys at lunar distances or greater, with orbital refinements eliminating any early uncertainty. Ongoing wide-field surveys further reduce the chance of an undetected impactor large enough to reach that energy threshold before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Wolumen
$311,320Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system continuously tracks known near-Earth objects and currently lists no objects with meaningful impact probability through 2026 or beyond, consistent with the 73.5% market-implied odds against a 5 kt or larger strike. A 5 kt airburst typically requires a roughly 5–15 meter object, events that occur on decadal timescales but have produced no confirmed cases yet this year amid routine small-fireball detections. All documented 2026 close approaches remain safe flybys at lunar distances or greater, with orbital refinements eliminating any early uncertainty. Ongoing wide-field surveys further reduce the chance of an undetected impactor large enough to reach that energy threshold before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania