Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.4% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, backed by the Committee's March decision to hold the target range steady at 3½–3¾ percent amid resilient labor markets and inflation above the 2 percent goal. Recent April CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 3.3 percent year-over-year and core at 2.6 percent—cooler than expected but insufficient to prompt action—while strong jobs reports reinforce a wait-and-see stance. Fed officials like Governors Waller and Williams highlighted geopolitical war risks to growth and prices but affirmed baseline policy patience, with the dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026. A surprise hot inflation print or labor market weakening ahead of the meeting could challenge this positioning, though such shifts remain low-probability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoDecyzja Fed w kwietniu?
Decyzja Fed w kwietniu?
Bez zmian 99.4%
Obniżka o 25 pb <1%
Podwyżka o 25+ pb <1%
Obniżka o 50+ punktów bazowych <1%
$109,126,541 Wol.
$109,126,541 Wol.
Apr 29, 2026
Obniżka o 50+ punktów bazowych
<1%
Obniżka o 25 pb
<1%
Bez zmian
99%
Podwyżka o 25+ pb
<1%
Bez zmian 99.4%
Obniżka o 25 pb <1%
Podwyżka o 25+ pb <1%
Obniżka o 50+ punktów bazowych <1%
$109,126,541 Wol.
$109,126,541 Wol.
Apr 29, 2026
Obniżka o 50+ punktów bazowych
$41,470,818 Wol.
<1%
Obniżka o 25 pb
$21,085,867 Wol.
<1%
Bez zmian
$21,728,996 Wol.
99%
Podwyżka o 25+ pb
$25,062,263 Wol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.4% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, backed by the Committee's March decision to hold the target range steady at 3½–3¾ percent amid resilient labor markets and inflation above the 2 percent goal. Recent April CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 3.3 percent year-over-year and core at 2.6 percent—cooler than expected but insufficient to prompt action—while strong jobs reports reinforce a wait-and-see stance. Fed officials like Governors Waller and Williams highlighted geopolitical war risks to growth and prices but affirmed baseline policy patience, with the dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026. A surprise hot inflation print or labor market weakening ahead of the meeting could challenge this positioning, though such shifts remain low-probability.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Wolumen
$109,126,541Data zakończenia
Apr 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.4% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, backed by the Committee's March decision to hold the target range steady at 3½–3¾ percent amid resilient labor markets and inflation above the 2 percent goal. Recent April CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 3.3 percent year-over-year and core at 2.6 percent—cooler than expected but insufficient to prompt action—while strong jobs reports reinforce a wait-and-see stance. Fed officials like Governors Waller and Williams highlighted geopolitical war risks to growth and prices but affirmed baseline policy patience, with the dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026. A surprise hot inflation print or labor market weakening ahead of the meeting could challenge this positioning, though such shifts remain low-probability.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$109,126,541Data zakończenia
Apr 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.4% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, backed by the Committee's March decision to hold the target range steady at 3½–3¾ percent amid resilient labor markets and inflation above the 2 percent goal. Recent April CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 3.3 percent year-over-year and core at 2.6 percent—cooler than expected but insufficient to prompt action—while strong jobs reports reinforce a wait-and-see stance. Fed officials like Governors Waller and Williams highlighted geopolitical war risks to growth and prices but affirmed baseline policy patience, with the dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026. A surprise hot inflation print or labor market weakening ahead of the meeting could challenge this positioning, though such shifts remain low-probability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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