Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and AI-related spending, remains the dominant driver of trader positioning for the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a July payrolls decline of 23,000 and unemployment at 4.1%, create a finely balanced outlook. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% following the July hold and three dissents favoring a hike, the near-even split between a 25 basis point increase and no change reflects competing views on whether data justify tightening before year-end. Upcoming September and October releases, plus Treasury yield movements, will likely determine shifts in market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed Decision in December?
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase 48%
No change 45%
25 bps decrease 7.7%
50+ bps decrease 1.9%
$455,201 Wol.
$455,201 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
45%
25 bps increase
48%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 48%
No change 45%
25 bps decrease 7.7%
50+ bps decrease 1.9%
$455,201 Wol.
$455,201 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$75,056 Wol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$98,986 Wol.
8%
No change
$71,807 Wol.
45%
25 bps increase
$124,252 Wol.
48%
50+ bps increase
$85,099 Wol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and AI-related spending, remains the dominant driver of trader positioning for the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a July payrolls decline of 23,000 and unemployment at 4.1%, create a finely balanced outlook. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% following the July hold and three dissents favoring a hike, the near-even split between a 25 basis point increase and no change reflects competing views on whether data justify tightening before year-end. Upcoming September and October releases, plus Treasury yield movements, will likely determine shifts in market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$455,201Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and AI-related spending, remains the dominant driver of trader positioning for the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a July payrolls decline of 23,000 and unemployment at 4.1%, create a finely balanced outlook. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% following the July hold and three dissents favoring a hike, the near-even split between a 25 basis point increase and no change reflects competing views on whether data justify tightening before year-end. Upcoming September and October releases, plus Treasury yield movements, will likely determine shifts in market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$455,201Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and AI-related spending, remains the dominant driver of trader positioning for the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a July payrolls decline of 23,000 and unemployment at 4.1%, create a finely balanced outlook. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% following the July hold and three dissents favoring a hike, the near-even split between a 25 basis point increase and no change reflects competing views on whether data justify tightening before year-end. Upcoming September and October releases, plus Treasury yield movements, will likely determine shifts in market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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