Polymarket traders assign a 91.5% implied probability to no change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus backed by real capital amid sticky inflation and a robust labor market. The March Federal Open Market Committee dot plot median forecasts just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026—likely post-June—following hotter-than-expected inflation projections, reinforced by March CPI surging 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy jump and core at 2.6% YoY. Solid March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 and unemployment ticking to 4.3% further support the 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range, echoed in recent Fed speeches. A realistic challenge would require sharply softer April CPI on May 12 or weakening May jobs data to revive easing expectations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoDecyzja Fed w czerwcu?
Decyzja Fed w czerwcu?
Brak zmiany 92%
Obniżka o 25 pb 5%
Podwyżka o 25 punktów bazowych 2.1%
Obniżka o ponad 50 pb <1%
$8,468,961 Wol.
$8,468,961 Wol.
Jun 17, 2026
Obniżka o ponad 50 pb
1%
Obniżka o 25 pb
5%
Brak zmiany
92%
Podwyżka o 25 punktów bazowych
2%
Podwyżka o 50+ pb
1%
Brak zmiany 92%
Obniżka o 25 pb 5%
Podwyżka o 25 punktów bazowych 2.1%
Obniżka o ponad 50 pb <1%
$8,468,961 Wol.
$8,468,961 Wol.
Jun 17, 2026
Obniżka o ponad 50 pb
$2,434,222 Wol.
1%
Obniżka o 25 pb
$1,287,225 Wol.
5%
Brak zmiany
$1,572,513 Wol.
92%
Podwyżka o 25 punktów bazowych
$1,718,525 Wol.
2%
Podwyżka o 50+ pb
$1,456,476 Wol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 91.5% implied probability to no change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus backed by real capital amid sticky inflation and a robust labor market. The March Federal Open Market Committee dot plot median forecasts just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026—likely post-June—following hotter-than-expected inflation projections, reinforced by March CPI surging 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy jump and core at 2.6% YoY. Solid March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 and unemployment ticking to 4.3% further support the 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range, echoed in recent Fed speeches. A realistic challenge would require sharply softer April CPI on May 12 or weakening May jobs data to revive easing expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Wolumen
$8,468,961Data zakończenia
Jun 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 91.5% implied probability to no change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus backed by real capital amid sticky inflation and a robust labor market. The March Federal Open Market Committee dot plot median forecasts just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026—likely post-June—following hotter-than-expected inflation projections, reinforced by March CPI surging 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy jump and core at 2.6% YoY. Solid March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 and unemployment ticking to 4.3% further support the 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range, echoed in recent Fed speeches. A realistic challenge would require sharply softer April CPI on May 12 or weakening May jobs data to revive easing expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$8,468,961Data zakończenia
Jun 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 91.5% implied probability to no change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus backed by real capital amid sticky inflation and a robust labor market. The March Federal Open Market Committee dot plot median forecasts just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026—likely post-June—following hotter-than-expected inflation projections, reinforced by March CPI surging 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy jump and core at 2.6% YoY. Solid March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 and unemployment ticking to 4.3% further support the 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range, echoed in recent Fed speeches. A realistic challenge would require sharply softer April CPI on May 12 or weakening May jobs data to revive easing expectations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania