Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Beijing will likely see sunny conditions and a daily maximum near 29–30°C on September 15, supporting the close clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Model consensus points to light southerly winds, low humidity, and minimal cloud cover allowing strong daytime heating, though small differences in predicted peak timing or urban heat island effects could shift the exact high by 1–2°C. Historical averages for the date sit near 26.5°C, with records reaching 31.9°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to 31°C while discounting extremes above 34°C or below 27°C. Fresh model runs and official updates from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 48 hours represent the key upcoming data points likely to refine these probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Beijing on September 15?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 15?
30°C 27%
29°C 22%
28°C 15%
34°C 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 15, 2026
25°C or below
10%
26°C
3%
27°C
9%
28°C
15%
29°C
22%
30°C
27%
31°C
10%
32°C
10%
33°C
7%
34°C
14%
35°C or higher
1%
30°C 27%
29°C 22%
28°C 15%
34°C 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 15, 2026
25°C or below
$35 Wol.
10%
26°C
$8 Wol.
3%
27°C
$0 Wol.
9%
28°C
$0 Wol.
15%
29°C
$0 Wol.
22%
30°C
$0 Wol.
27%
31°C
$0 Wol.
10%
32°C
$0 Wol.
10%
33°C
$13 Wol.
7%
34°C
$10 Wol.
14%
35°C or higher
$10 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Beijing will likely see sunny conditions and a daily maximum near 29–30°C on September 15, supporting the close clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Model consensus points to light southerly winds, low humidity, and minimal cloud cover allowing strong daytime heating, though small differences in predicted peak timing or urban heat island effects could shift the exact high by 1–2°C. Historical averages for the date sit near 26.5°C, with records reaching 31.9°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to 31°C while discounting extremes above 34°C or below 27°C. Fresh model runs and official updates from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 48 hours represent the key upcoming data points likely to refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
Wolumen
$76Data zakończenia
Sep 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Beijing will likely see sunny conditions and a daily maximum near 29–30°C on September 15, supporting the close clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Model consensus points to light southerly winds, low humidity, and minimal cloud cover allowing strong daytime heating, though small differences in predicted peak timing or urban heat island effects could shift the exact high by 1–2°C. Historical averages for the date sit near 26.5°C, with records reaching 31.9°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to 31°C while discounting extremes above 34°C or below 27°C. Fresh model runs and official updates from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 48 hours represent the key upcoming data points likely to refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$76Data zakończenia
Sep 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Beijing will likely see sunny conditions and a daily maximum near 29–30°C on September 15, supporting the close clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Model consensus points to light southerly winds, low humidity, and minimal cloud cover allowing strong daytime heating, though small differences in predicted peak timing or urban heat island effects could shift the exact high by 1–2°C. Historical averages for the date sit near 26.5°C, with records reaching 31.9°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to 31°C while discounting extremes above 34°C or below 27°C. Fresh model runs and official updates from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 48 hours represent the key upcoming data points likely to refine these probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania