Jerome Powell's continued role as a senior Federal Reserve official through mid-2026, with no indictments, investigations, or credible allegations of criminal conduct, underpins the 98.4% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. As former Chair whose governor term extends to 2028, Powell maintains a record free of personal legal exposure amid standard central-bank scrutiny over monetary policy and Fed operations. Traders price this outcome with high conviction given the institutional protections around senior officials and the absence of recent developments suggesting otherwise. Tail risks remain remote but include highly improbable scenarios such as unprecedented political targeting post-election or unforeseen regulatory enforcement actions that would require extraordinary legal and evidentiary shifts to materialize.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoJerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Jerome Powell's continued role as a senior Federal Reserve official through mid-2026, with no indictments, investigations, or credible allegations of criminal conduct, underpins the 98.4% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. As former Chair whose governor term extends to 2028, Powell maintains a record free of personal legal exposure amid standard central-bank scrutiny over monetary policy and Fed operations. Traders price this outcome with high conviction given the institutional protections around senior officials and the absence of recent developments suggesting otherwise. Tail risks remain remote but include highly improbable scenarios such as unprecedented political targeting post-election or unforeseen regulatory enforcement actions that would require extraordinary legal and evidentiary shifts to materialize.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Wolumen
$5,146Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Jerome Powell's continued role as a senior Federal Reserve official through mid-2026, with no indictments, investigations, or credible allegations of criminal conduct, underpins the 98.4% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. As former Chair whose governor term extends to 2028, Powell maintains a record free of personal legal exposure amid standard central-bank scrutiny over monetary policy and Fed operations. Traders price this outcome with high conviction given the institutional protections around senior officials and the absence of recent developments suggesting otherwise. Tail risks remain remote but include highly improbable scenarios such as unprecedented political targeting post-election or unforeseen regulatory enforcement actions that would require extraordinary legal and evidentiary shifts to materialize.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$5,146Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Jerome Powell's continued role as a senior Federal Reserve official through mid-2026, with no indictments, investigations, or credible allegations of criminal conduct, underpins the 98.4% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. As former Chair whose governor term extends to 2028, Powell maintains a record free of personal legal exposure amid standard central-bank scrutiny over monetary policy and Fed operations. Traders price this outcome with high conviction given the institutional protections around senior officials and the absence of recent developments suggesting otherwise. Tail risks remain remote but include highly improbable scenarios such as unprecedented political targeting post-election or unforeseen regulatory enforcement actions that would require extraordinary legal and evidentiary shifts to materialize.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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