Recent model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles show the primary driver of tight Polymarket odds around 15–17°C for Amsterdam’s September 15 minimum, reflecting modest forecast spread in overnight cloud cover, southerly flow, and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Current conditions feature mild temperatures near 16–18°C with light winds and high humidity that suppress sharp drops, consistent with early-autumn Atlantic patterns rather than strong high pressure. Historical averages place the September 15 low near 11°C, so trader consensus favors above-normal values while assigning meaningful probability to cooler outliers if clearer skies develop. Updated model guidance and observational data through the evening of September 14 will likely narrow the range ahead of overnight resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 15?
11°C or below 38%
17°C 30%
16°C 29%
15°C 28%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 15, 2026
11°C or below
38%
12°C
8%
13°C
15%
14°C
19%
15°C
28%
16°C
29%
17°C
30%
18°C
19%
19°C
18%
20°C
2%
21°C or higher
1%
11°C or below 38%
17°C 30%
16°C 29%
15°C 28%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 15, 2026
11°C or below
$10 Wol.
38%
12°C
$10 Wol.
8%
13°C
$39 Wol.
15%
14°C
$0 Wol.
19%
15°C
$0 Wol.
28%
16°C
$0 Wol.
29%
17°C
$9 Wol.
30%
18°C
$0 Wol.
19%
19°C
$0 Wol.
18%
20°C
$10 Wol.
2%
21°C or higher
$128 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles show the primary driver of tight Polymarket odds around 15–17°C for Amsterdam’s September 15 minimum, reflecting modest forecast spread in overnight cloud cover, southerly flow, and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Current conditions feature mild temperatures near 16–18°C with light winds and high humidity that suppress sharp drops, consistent with early-autumn Atlantic patterns rather than strong high pressure. Historical averages place the September 15 low near 11°C, so trader consensus favors above-normal values while assigning meaningful probability to cooler outliers if clearer skies develop. Updated model guidance and observational data through the evening of September 14 will likely narrow the range ahead of overnight resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$206Data zakończenia
Sep 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles show the primary driver of tight Polymarket odds around 15–17°C for Amsterdam’s September 15 minimum, reflecting modest forecast spread in overnight cloud cover, southerly flow, and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Current conditions feature mild temperatures near 16–18°C with light winds and high humidity that suppress sharp drops, consistent with early-autumn Atlantic patterns rather than strong high pressure. Historical averages place the September 15 low near 11°C, so trader consensus favors above-normal values while assigning meaningful probability to cooler outliers if clearer skies develop. Updated model guidance and observational data through the evening of September 14 will likely narrow the range ahead of overnight resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$206Data zakończenia
Sep 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles show the primary driver of tight Polymarket odds around 15–17°C for Amsterdam’s September 15 minimum, reflecting modest forecast spread in overnight cloud cover, southerly flow, and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Current conditions feature mild temperatures near 16–18°C with light winds and high humidity that suppress sharp drops, consistent with early-autumn Atlantic patterns rather than strong high pressure. Historical averages place the September 15 low near 11°C, so trader consensus favors above-normal values while assigning meaningful probability to cooler outliers if clearer skies develop. Updated model guidance and observational data through the evening of September 14 will likely narrow the range ahead of overnight resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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