**Current forecasts from official sources like AEMET and multiple numerical models point to a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 15 around 19–22 °C under clear skies, light variable winds, and a warm air mass.** This places the most likely overnight low in the upper teens to low 20s Celsius, consistent with the closely bunched market probabilities across 15–22 °C outcomes. Clear conditions favor radiative cooling after sunset, but the overall warm synoptic pattern and minimal cloud cover limit how far temperatures can drop. Historical September 15 averages near 15.5 °C, yet the current setup is several degrees warmer due to persistent high pressure and southerly flow. Model consensus shows little disagreement on the broad pattern, though small differences in exact wind speed, dew-point depression, or timing of the daily minimum create the observed spread in implied probabilities. Traders appear to weigh the strong warm bias against residual uncertainty in the precise low, with 16 °C holding the highest single-outcome share while 22 °C or higher remains competitive. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24 hours will likely tighten the range as the event approaches resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Madrid on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 15?
22°C or higher 81%
12°C or below 41%
16°C 32%
15°C 25%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 15, 2026
12°C or below
41%
13°C
16%
14°C
22%
15°C
25%
16°C
32%
17°C
22%
18°C
22%
19°C
21%
20°C
21%
21°C
13%
22°C or higher
81%
22°C or higher 81%
12°C or below 41%
16°C 32%
15°C 25%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 15, 2026
12°C or below
$10 Wol.
41%
13°C
$10 Wol.
16%
14°C
$0 Wol.
22%
15°C
$0 Wol.
25%
16°C
$0 Wol.
32%
17°C
$0 Wol.
22%
18°C
$0 Wol.
22%
19°C
$0 Wol.
21%
20°C
$8 Wol.
21%
21°C
$10 Wol.
13%
22°C or higher
$10 Wol.
81%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from official sources like AEMET and multiple numerical models point to a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 15 around 19–22 °C under clear skies, light variable winds, and a warm air mass.** This places the most likely overnight low in the upper teens to low 20s Celsius, consistent with the closely bunched market probabilities across 15–22 °C outcomes.
Clear conditions favor radiative cooling after sunset, but the overall warm synoptic pattern and minimal cloud cover limit how far temperatures can drop. Historical September 15 averages near 15.5 °C, yet the current setup is several degrees warmer due to persistent high pressure and southerly flow. Model consensus shows little disagreement on the broad pattern, though small differences in exact wind speed, dew-point depression, or timing of the daily minimum create the observed spread in implied probabilities.
Traders appear to weigh the strong warm bias against residual uncertainty in the precise low, with 16 °C holding the highest single-outcome share while 22 °C or higher remains competitive. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24 hours will likely tighten the range as the event approaches resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Wolumen
$48Data zakończenia
Sep 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from official sources like AEMET and multiple numerical models point to a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 15 around 19–22 °C under clear skies, light variable winds, and a warm air mass.** This places the most likely overnight low in the upper teens to low 20s Celsius, consistent with the closely bunched market probabilities across 15–22 °C outcomes.
Clear conditions favor radiative cooling after sunset, but the overall warm synoptic pattern and minimal cloud cover limit how far temperatures can drop. Historical September 15 averages near 15.5 °C, yet the current setup is several degrees warmer due to persistent high pressure and southerly flow. Model consensus shows little disagreement on the broad pattern, though small differences in exact wind speed, dew-point depression, or timing of the daily minimum create the observed spread in implied probabilities.
Traders appear to weigh the strong warm bias against residual uncertainty in the precise low, with 16 °C holding the highest single-outcome share while 22 °C or higher remains competitive. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24 hours will likely tighten the range as the event approaches resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$48Data zakończenia
Sep 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from official sources like AEMET and multiple numerical models point to a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 15 around 19–22 °C under clear skies, light variable winds, and a warm air mass.** This places the most likely overnight low in the upper teens to low 20s Celsius, consistent with the closely bunched market probabilities across 15–22 °C outcomes. Clear conditions favor radiative cooling after sunset, but the overall warm synoptic pattern and minimal cloud cover limit how far temperatures can drop. Historical September 15 averages near 15.5 °C, yet the current setup is several degrees warmer due to persistent high pressure and southerly flow. Model consensus shows little disagreement on the broad pattern, though small differences in exact wind speed, dew-point depression, or timing of the daily minimum create the observed spread in implied probabilities. Traders appear to weigh the strong warm bias against residual uncertainty in the precise low, with 16 °C holding the highest single-outcome share while 22 °C or higher remains competitive. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24 hours will likely tighten the range as the event approaches resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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