**Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including NWS guidance and private models, point to a minimum temperature in NYC (Central Park station) on September 19 in the low-to-mid 60s°F, aligning closely with the market's leading buckets of 62–63°F (27%), 64–65°F (24%), and 60–61°F (23.5%).** A shift to northerly and easterly flow behind a weak frontal passage has replaced earlier southerly warmth, with high pressure promoting partly to mostly clear skies overnight. This setup favors moderate radiative cooling under light winds (typically 5–10 mph), allowing surface temperatures to drop into the low 60s after daytime highs near 70–73°F. Model consensus shows limited spread for the nocturnal minimum, but small differences in cloud cover, dewpoint depression, or urban heat-island retention can shift the exact low by 1–3°F. Historical September climatology for NYC places average lows around 60–62°F, so current conditions reflect near-normal early-autumn cooling rather than an anomaly. Traders are weighting the tight clustering of official and ensemble guidance, with the narrowest probabilities on outcomes below 60°F or above 66°F reflecting low likelihood of stronger cold advection or persistent cloudiness before the next system arrives. Updated model runs and NWS forecast discussions through September 18 will provide the final calibration before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in NYC on September 19?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 19?
62-63°F 27%
64-65°F 24%
60-61°F 24%
58-59°F 19%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 19, 2026
55°F or below
7%
56-57°F
11%
58-59°F
19%
60-61°F
24%
62-63°F
27%
64-65°F
24%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
11%
70-71°F
7%
72-73°F
4%
74°F or higher
4%
62-63°F 27%
64-65°F 24%
60-61°F 24%
58-59°F 19%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 19, 2026
55°F or below
$0 Wol.
7%
56-57°F
$0 Wol.
11%
58-59°F
$63 Wol.
19%
60-61°F
$2 Wol.
24%
62-63°F
$0 Wol.
27%
64-65°F
$0 Wol.
24%
66-67°F
$0 Wol.
19%
68-69°F
$0 Wol.
11%
70-71°F
$0 Wol.
7%
72-73°F
$0 Wol.
4%
74°F or higher
$0 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including NWS guidance and private models, point to a minimum temperature in NYC (Central Park station) on September 19 in the low-to-mid 60s°F, aligning closely with the market's leading buckets of 62–63°F (27%), 64–65°F (24%), and 60–61°F (23.5%).**
A shift to northerly and easterly flow behind a weak frontal passage has replaced earlier southerly warmth, with high pressure promoting partly to mostly clear skies overnight. This setup favors moderate radiative cooling under light winds (typically 5–10 mph), allowing surface temperatures to drop into the low 60s after daytime highs near 70–73°F.
Model consensus shows limited spread for the nocturnal minimum, but small differences in cloud cover, dewpoint depression, or urban heat-island retention can shift the exact low by 1–3°F. Historical September climatology for NYC places average lows around 60–62°F, so current conditions reflect near-normal early-autumn cooling rather than an anomaly.
Traders are weighting the tight clustering of official and ensemble guidance, with the narrowest probabilities on outcomes below 60°F or above 66°F reflecting low likelihood of stronger cold advection or persistent cloudiness before the next system arrives. Updated model runs and NWS forecast discussions through September 18 will provide the final calibration before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 17, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$65Data zakończenia
Sep 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 3:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including NWS guidance and private models, point to a minimum temperature in NYC (Central Park station) on September 19 in the low-to-mid 60s°F, aligning closely with the market's leading buckets of 62–63°F (27%), 64–65°F (24%), and 60–61°F (23.5%).**
A shift to northerly and easterly flow behind a weak frontal passage has replaced earlier southerly warmth, with high pressure promoting partly to mostly clear skies overnight. This setup favors moderate radiative cooling under light winds (typically 5–10 mph), allowing surface temperatures to drop into the low 60s after daytime highs near 70–73°F.
Model consensus shows limited spread for the nocturnal minimum, but small differences in cloud cover, dewpoint depression, or urban heat-island retention can shift the exact low by 1–3°F. Historical September climatology for NYC places average lows around 60–62°F, so current conditions reflect near-normal early-autumn cooling rather than an anomaly.
Traders are weighting the tight clustering of official and ensemble guidance, with the narrowest probabilities on outcomes below 60°F or above 66°F reflecting low likelihood of stronger cold advection or persistent cloudiness before the next system arrives. Updated model runs and NWS forecast discussions through September 18 will provide the final calibration before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$65Data zakończenia
Sep 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 3:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including NWS guidance and private models, point to a minimum temperature in NYC (Central Park station) on September 19 in the low-to-mid 60s°F, aligning closely with the market's leading buckets of 62–63°F (27%), 64–65°F (24%), and 60–61°F (23.5%).** A shift to northerly and easterly flow behind a weak frontal passage has replaced earlier southerly warmth, with high pressure promoting partly to mostly clear skies overnight. This setup favors moderate radiative cooling under light winds (typically 5–10 mph), allowing surface temperatures to drop into the low 60s after daytime highs near 70–73°F. Model consensus shows limited spread for the nocturnal minimum, but small differences in cloud cover, dewpoint depression, or urban heat-island retention can shift the exact low by 1–3°F. Historical September climatology for NYC places average lows around 60–62°F, so current conditions reflect near-normal early-autumn cooling rather than an anomaly. Traders are weighting the tight clustering of official and ensemble guidance, with the narrowest probabilities on outcomes below 60°F or above 66°F reflecting low likelihood of stronger cold advection or persistent cloudiness before the next system arrives. Updated model runs and NWS forecast discussions through September 18 will provide the final calibration before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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