Current forecasts from European models point to overnight lows of 17–19°C in Paris on September 4 under a mild southwesterly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, supporting the tight market clustering around 18°C (35.5%) and 19°C (33.0%). Key drivers include limited radiative cooling from lingering warmth in the boundary layer, urban heat retention, and the absence of strong high-pressure subsidence that would allow sharper drops. Historical early-September averages near 13°C provide context, yet the current pattern of warmer-than-normal air advection keeps probabilities for 14°C or below (31.5%) or 24°C+ (31.5%) lower. Minor shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or model timing could easily differentiate the closest outcomes by 1–2°C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Paris on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 4?
18°C 36%
17°C 34%
20°C 26%
16°C 24%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 4, 2026
14°C or below
19%
15°C
19%
16°C
24%
17°C
34%
18°C
36%
19°C
29%
20°C
26%
21°C
22%
22°C
2%
23°C
8%
24°C or higher
8%
18°C 36%
17°C 34%
20°C 26%
16°C 24%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 4, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Wol.
19%
15°C
$0 Wol.
19%
16°C
$0 Wol.
24%
17°C
$0 Wol.
34%
18°C
$0 Wol.
36%
19°C
$485 Wol.
29%
20°C
$0 Wol.
26%
21°C
$0 Wol.
22%
22°C
$0 Wol.
2%
23°C
$0 Wol.
8%
24°C or higher
$0 Wol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from European models point to overnight lows of 17–19°C in Paris on September 4 under a mild southwesterly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, supporting the tight market clustering around 18°C (35.5%) and 19°C (33.0%). Key drivers include limited radiative cooling from lingering warmth in the boundary layer, urban heat retention, and the absence of strong high-pressure subsidence that would allow sharper drops. Historical early-September averages near 13°C provide context, yet the current pattern of warmer-than-normal air advection keeps probabilities for 14°C or below (31.5%) or 24°C+ (31.5%) lower. Minor shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or model timing could easily differentiate the closest outcomes by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$485Data zakończenia
Sep 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from European models point to overnight lows of 17–19°C in Paris on September 4 under a mild southwesterly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, supporting the tight market clustering around 18°C (35.5%) and 19°C (33.0%). Key drivers include limited radiative cooling from lingering warmth in the boundary layer, urban heat retention, and the absence of strong high-pressure subsidence that would allow sharper drops. Historical early-September averages near 13°C provide context, yet the current pattern of warmer-than-normal air advection keeps probabilities for 14°C or below (31.5%) or 24°C+ (31.5%) lower. Minor shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or model timing could easily differentiate the closest outcomes by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$485Data zakończenia
Sep 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from European models point to overnight lows of 17–19°C in Paris on September 4 under a mild southwesterly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, supporting the tight market clustering around 18°C (35.5%) and 19°C (33.0%). Key drivers include limited radiative cooling from lingering warmth in the boundary layer, urban heat retention, and the absence of strong high-pressure subsidence that would allow sharper drops. Historical early-September averages near 13°C provide context, yet the current pattern of warmer-than-normal air advection keeps probabilities for 14°C or below (31.5%) or 24°C+ (31.5%) lower. Minor shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or model timing could easily differentiate the closest outcomes by 1–2°C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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