Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to a September 24 overnight low in Warsaw near 8–10 °C under mostly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow, limiting radiative cooling. Persistent cloud cover and modest winds near 3–5 m/s suppress the sharp nocturnal temperature drop that would be needed for readings at or below 5 °C, while the absence of strong cold-air advection keeps values well below the 12 °C threshold. Model spread remains modest, with some runs showing a brief dip toward 7–8 °C around dawn and others holding near 10 °C, which explains the near-even market-implied odds on the extreme brackets versus the clustered probabilities around 5–11 °C. Updated guidance from the Polish Institute of Meteorology or the next model cycle could refine the exact minimum before midnight local time.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 24?
2°C or below 96%
12°C or higher 96%
6°C 40%
7°C 39%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 24, 2026
2°C or below
96%
3°C
17%
4°C
18%
5°C
23%
6°C
40%
7°C
39%
8°C
39%
9°C
38%
10°C
38%
11°C
38%
12°C or higher
96%
2°C or below 96%
12°C or higher 96%
6°C 40%
7°C 39%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 24, 2026
2°C or below
$0 Wol.
96%
3°C
$0 Wol.
17%
4°C
$0 Wol.
18%
5°C
$99 Wol.
23%
6°C
$0 Wol.
40%
7°C
$0 Wol.
39%
8°C
$0 Wol.
39%
9°C
$0 Wol.
38%
10°C
$0 Wol.
38%
11°C
$0 Wol.
38%
12°C or higher
$0 Wol.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to a September 24 overnight low in Warsaw near 8–10 °C under mostly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow, limiting radiative cooling. Persistent cloud cover and modest winds near 3–5 m/s suppress the sharp nocturnal temperature drop that would be needed for readings at or below 5 °C, while the absence of strong cold-air advection keeps values well below the 12 °C threshold. Model spread remains modest, with some runs showing a brief dip toward 7–8 °C around dawn and others holding near 10 °C, which explains the near-even market-implied odds on the extreme brackets versus the clustered probabilities around 5–11 °C. Updated guidance from the Polish Institute of Meteorology or the next model cycle could refine the exact minimum before midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$99Data zakończenia
Sep 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to a September 24 overnight low in Warsaw near 8–10 °C under mostly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow, limiting radiative cooling. Persistent cloud cover and modest winds near 3–5 m/s suppress the sharp nocturnal temperature drop that would be needed for readings at or below 5 °C, while the absence of strong cold-air advection keeps values well below the 12 °C threshold. Model spread remains modest, with some runs showing a brief dip toward 7–8 °C around dawn and others holding near 10 °C, which explains the near-even market-implied odds on the extreme brackets versus the clustered probabilities around 5–11 °C. Updated guidance from the Polish Institute of Meteorology or the next model cycle could refine the exact minimum before midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$99Data zakończenia
Sep 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to a September 24 overnight low in Warsaw near 8–10 °C under mostly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow, limiting radiative cooling. Persistent cloud cover and modest winds near 3–5 m/s suppress the sharp nocturnal temperature drop that would be needed for readings at or below 5 °C, while the absence of strong cold-air advection keeps values well below the 12 °C threshold. Model spread remains modest, with some runs showing a brief dip toward 7–8 °C around dawn and others holding near 10 °C, which explains the near-even market-implied odds on the extreme brackets versus the clustered probabilities around 5–11 °C. Updated guidance from the Polish Institute of Meteorology or the next model cycle could refine the exact minimum before midnight local time.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania