OpenAI leads trader sentiment for second-best AI agent lab by end of November with a 31.5% implied probability, ahead of Google at 22.4% and Moonshot at 16%, as markets price in its strong positioning in large language model agents capable of multi-step reasoning and tool integration. Competitive dynamics remain fluid among established labs and Chinese contenders like MiniMax and DeepSeek, driven by differences in demonstrated autonomous task performance, developer platform adoption, and safety evaluations rather than raw model scale. Recent capability updates and ecosystem partnerships have kept probabilities closely contested, with upcoming releases and benchmark results likely to shift odds before resolution. Traders weigh historical release timelines against the risk of timeline slips or surprise announcements from rivals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSecond-best AI Agent Lab end of November?
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of November?
OpenAI 30%
Google 22.4%
Alibaba 21.9%
Z.ai 21.0%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 30, 2026
OpenAI
31%
22%
Alibaba
22%
Z.ai
21%
Microsoft
21%
Moonshot
16%
Anthropic
9%
Baidu
6%
Nvidia
4%
Meituan
4%
ByteDance
4%
Mistral
4%
SpaceXAI
4%
Tencent
4%
Meta
4%
DeepSeek
4%
Amazon
2%
Xiaomi
2%
MiniMax
12%
OpenAI 30%
Google 22.4%
Alibaba 21.9%
Z.ai 21.0%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 30, 2026
OpenAI
$147 Wol.
31%
$129 Wol.
22%
Alibaba
$53 Wol.
22%
Z.ai
$53 Wol.
21%
Microsoft
$53 Wol.
21%
Moonshot
$98 Wol.
16%
Anthropic
$73 Wol.
9%
Baidu
$261 Wol.
6%
Nvidia
$169 Wol.
4%
Meituan
$53 Wol.
4%
ByteDance
$53 Wol.
4%
Mistral
$53 Wol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$83 Wol.
4%
Tencent
$53 Wol.
4%
Meta
$53 Wol.
4%
DeepSeek
$53 Wol.
4%
Amazon
$67 Wol.
2%
Xiaomi
$53 Wol.
2%
MiniMax
$363 Wol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI leads trader sentiment for second-best AI agent lab by end of November with a 31.5% implied probability, ahead of Google at 22.4% and Moonshot at 16%, as markets price in its strong positioning in large language model agents capable of multi-step reasoning and tool integration. Competitive dynamics remain fluid among established labs and Chinese contenders like MiniMax and DeepSeek, driven by differences in demonstrated autonomous task performance, developer platform adoption, and safety evaluations rather than raw model scale. Recent capability updates and ecosystem partnerships have kept probabilities closely contested, with upcoming releases and benchmark results likely to shift odds before resolution. Traders weigh historical release timelines against the risk of timeline slips or surprise announcements from rivals.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,915Data zakończenia
Dec 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI leads trader sentiment for second-best AI agent lab by end of November with a 31.5% implied probability, ahead of Google at 22.4% and Moonshot at 16%, as markets price in its strong positioning in large language model agents capable of multi-step reasoning and tool integration. Competitive dynamics remain fluid among established labs and Chinese contenders like MiniMax and DeepSeek, driven by differences in demonstrated autonomous task performance, developer platform adoption, and safety evaluations rather than raw model scale. Recent capability updates and ecosystem partnerships have kept probabilities closely contested, with upcoming releases and benchmark results likely to shift odds before resolution. Traders weigh historical release timelines against the risk of timeline slips or surprise announcements from rivals.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$1,915Data zakończenia
Dec 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI leads trader sentiment for second-best AI agent lab by end of November with a 31.5% implied probability, ahead of Google at 22.4% and Moonshot at 16%, as markets price in its strong positioning in large language model agents capable of multi-step reasoning and tool integration. Competitive dynamics remain fluid among established labs and Chinese contenders like MiniMax and DeepSeek, driven by differences in demonstrated autonomous task performance, developer platform adoption, and safety evaluations rather than raw model scale. Recent capability updates and ecosystem partnerships have kept probabilities closely contested, with upcoming releases and benchmark results likely to shift odds before resolution. Traders weigh historical release timelines against the risk of timeline slips or surprise announcements from rivals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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