Traders assign a 96.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the limited window remaining and absence of recent major military mobilizations or direct escalatory statements from Beijing in the past month. Ongoing cross-strait tensions persist through routine exercises and diplomatic signaling, yet no verified large-scale amphibious preparations or ultimata have emerged to shift assessments. High implied odds align with the substantial logistical and economic barriers to such an operation, alongside continued U.S. and allied deterrence postures. Late developments capable of altering outcomes within the resolution period remain possible but narrow, including unanticipated crises, leadership miscalculations, or abrupt shifts in regional military posture.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCzy Chiny dokonają inwazji na Tajwan do końca 2026 roku?
Czy Chiny dokonają inwazji na Tajwan do końca 2026 roku?
Tak
$40,032,424 Wol.
$40,032,424 Wol.
Tak
$40,032,424 Wol.
$40,032,424 Wol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rozstrzygający
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 96.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the limited window remaining and absence of recent major military mobilizations or direct escalatory statements from Beijing in the past month. Ongoing cross-strait tensions persist through routine exercises and diplomatic signaling, yet no verified large-scale amphibious preparations or ultimata have emerged to shift assessments. High implied odds align with the substantial logistical and economic barriers to such an operation, alongside continued U.S. and allied deterrence postures. Late developments capable of altering outcomes within the resolution period remain possible but narrow, including unanticipated crises, leadership miscalculations, or abrupt shifts in regional military posture.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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