Nevada voters approved the reproductive rights constitutional amendment in 2024 by a wide margin, and state rules require a second successive passage for it to take effect in the November 2026 general election. This procedural threshold, combined with the measure's prior strong performance, existing statutory protections up to viability, and limited organized opposition, underpins the market's 95.5% implied probability for passage. Trader consensus reflects the amendment's durable support across recent cycles and the absence of major polling shifts or campaign developments that would reverse the outcome. Still, factors such as unusually low turnout, late legal challenges to ballot language, or unforeseen national events influencing voter priorities could narrow the margin or alter results before election day.