The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% serves as the dominant driver behind the 85.5% market-implied probability of at least one additional hike before year-end. Updated Summary of Economic Projections lifted the median 2026 rate outlook to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening amid PCE inflation projections of 3.7% for the year and solid GDP growth near 2.3%. Recent CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year gains through August reinforce upside inflation risks, while the labor market remains resilient at around 4.1% unemployment. Traders are pricing in a high likelihood of another move by December, consistent with the dot plot's hawkish tilt and futures markets assigning elevated odds to additional policy firming through early 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
86% chance
$80,479 Vol.
$80,479 Vol.
8 dez 2026
Sim
86% chance
$80,479 Vol.
$80,479 Vol.
8 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% serves as the dominant driver behind the 85.5% market-implied probability of at least one additional hike before year-end. Updated Summary of Economic Projections lifted the median 2026 rate outlook to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening amid PCE inflation projections of 3.7% for the year and solid GDP growth near 2.3%. Recent CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year gains through August reinforce upside inflation risks, while the labor market remains resilient at around 4.1% unemployment. Traders are pricing in a high likelihood of another move by December, consistent with the dot plot's hawkish tilt and futures markets assigning elevated odds to additional policy firming through early 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$80,479Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% serves as the dominant driver behind the 85.5% market-implied probability of at least one additional hike before year-end. Updated Summary of Economic Projections lifted the median 2026 rate outlook to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening amid PCE inflation projections of 3.7% for the year and solid GDP growth near 2.3%. Recent CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year gains through August reinforce upside inflation risks, while the labor market remains resilient at around 4.1% unemployment. Traders are pricing in a high likelihood of another move by December, consistent with the dot plot's hawkish tilt and futures markets assigning elevated odds to additional policy firming through early 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$80,479Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% serves as the dominant driver behind the 85.5% market-implied probability of at least one additional hike before year-end. Updated Summary of Economic Projections lifted the median 2026 rate outlook to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening amid PCE inflation projections of 3.7% for the year and solid GDP growth near 2.3%. Recent CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year gains through August reinforce upside inflation risks, while the labor market remains resilient at around 4.1% unemployment. Traders are pricing in a high likelihood of another move by December, consistent with the dot plot's hawkish tilt and futures markets assigning elevated odds to additional policy firming through early 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions