Recent July 2026 Core PCE data, released August 26 at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year in line with consensus, underscores persistent underlying price pressures above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for the 65th consecutive month. Services inflation accelerated while goods prices eased modestly, supported by stronger-than-expected personal income and consumption readings that signal resilient demand. Cleveland Fed nowcasts for August place Core PCE MoM near 0.27%, reflecting mixed signals from sticky services components and potential moderation in energy-related volatility amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. With 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes nearly tied in trader-implied odds, markets price in balanced risks around whether the July print marks a stall in disinflation or a temporary spike ahead of the September 30 release. The upcoming FOMC meeting adds further weight to how any deviation from the recent 0.1–0.3% range could influence rate expectations and Treasury yields.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado0.3% 38%
0.2% 36%
0.1% 12%
0.5%+ 8.1%
NOVO
NOVO
30 set 2026
≤-0.1%
2%
0.0%
3%
0.1%
12%
0.2%
36%
0.3%
38%
0.4%
7%
0.5%+
8%
0.3% 38%
0.2% 36%
0.1% 12%
0.5%+ 8.1%
NOVO
NOVO
30 set 2026
≤-0.1%
$37 Vol.
2%
0.0%
$37 Vol.
3%
0.1%
$57 Vol.
12%
0.2%
$582 Vol.
36%
0.3%
$457 Vol.
38%
0.4%
$110 Vol.
7%
0.5%+
$73 Vol.
8%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July 2026 Core PCE data, released August 26 at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year in line with consensus, underscores persistent underlying price pressures above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for the 65th consecutive month. Services inflation accelerated while goods prices eased modestly, supported by stronger-than-expected personal income and consumption readings that signal resilient demand. Cleveland Fed nowcasts for August place Core PCE MoM near 0.27%, reflecting mixed signals from sticky services components and potential moderation in energy-related volatility amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. With 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes nearly tied in trader-implied odds, markets price in balanced risks around whether the July print marks a stall in disinflation or a temporary spike ahead of the September 30 release. The upcoming FOMC meeting adds further weight to how any deviation from the recent 0.1–0.3% range could influence rate expectations and Treasury yields.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,353Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July 2026 Core PCE data, released August 26 at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year in line with consensus, underscores persistent underlying price pressures above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for the 65th consecutive month. Services inflation accelerated while goods prices eased modestly, supported by stronger-than-expected personal income and consumption readings that signal resilient demand. Cleveland Fed nowcasts for August place Core PCE MoM near 0.27%, reflecting mixed signals from sticky services components and potential moderation in energy-related volatility amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. With 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes nearly tied in trader-implied odds, markets price in balanced risks around whether the July print marks a stall in disinflation or a temporary spike ahead of the September 30 release. The upcoming FOMC meeting adds further weight to how any deviation from the recent 0.1–0.3% range could influence rate expectations and Treasury yields.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$1,353Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 Core PCE data, released August 26 at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year in line with consensus, underscores persistent underlying price pressures above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for the 65th consecutive month. Services inflation accelerated while goods prices eased modestly, supported by stronger-than-expected personal income and consumption readings that signal resilient demand. Cleveland Fed nowcasts for August place Core PCE MoM near 0.27%, reflecting mixed signals from sticky services components and potential moderation in energy-related volatility amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. With 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes nearly tied in trader-implied odds, markets price in balanced risks around whether the July print marks a stall in disinflation or a temporary spike ahead of the September 30 release. The upcoming FOMC meeting adds further weight to how any deviation from the recent 0.1–0.3% range could influence rate expectations and Treasury yields.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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