Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race among 1160-1279 tweet ranges for Elon Musk's April 2026 X activity, with implied probabilities hovering at 13-15% apiece, driven by his consistent 35-45 posts per day pace through the first 16 days—projecting roughly 1,200 total amid steady engagement on Starlink disputes in South Africa, U.S. politics, and Tesla updates. Short-term markets like April 10-17 (270 posts, ~38/day average) and April 13-15 (resolved ~75 over 3 days) underscore this reliability, but no dominant frontrunner emerges due to uncertainty over late-month spikes from viral controversies or slowdowns during business focus. Key differentiators include potential news catalysts like earnings reports, with resolution hinging on main feed posts, quotes, and reposts excluding most replies. Conditions can shift rapidly with Musk's cultural footprint.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1240-1279 14.6%
1160-1199 13.0%
1200-1239 12.8%
1000-1039 12.4%
$7,875,757 Vol.
$7,875,757 Vol.
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
<1%
800-839
<1%
840-879
1%
880-919
1%
920-959
1%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
12%
1040-1079
4%
1080-1119
4%
1120-1159
9%
1160-1199
13%
1200-1239
13%
1240-1279
15%
1280-1319
11%
1320-1359
7%
1360-1399
5%
1400-1439
2%
1440-1479
2%
1480-1519
1%
1520-1559
1%
1560-1599
1%
1600-1679
<1%
1680-1759
<1%
1760-1839
<1%
1840-1919
<1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000+
<1%
1240-1279 14.6%
1160-1199 13.0%
1200-1239 12.8%
1000-1039 12.4%
$7,875,757 Vol.
$7,875,757 Vol.
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
<1%
800-839
<1%
840-879
1%
880-919
1%
920-959
1%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
12%
1040-1079
4%
1080-1119
4%
1120-1159
9%
1160-1199
13%
1200-1239
13%
1240-1279
15%
1280-1319
11%
1320-1359
7%
1360-1399
5%
1400-1439
2%
1440-1479
2%
1480-1519
1%
1520-1559
1%
1560-1599
1%
1600-1679
<1%
1680-1759
<1%
1760-1839
<1%
1840-1919
<1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Fonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race among 1160-1279 tweet ranges for Elon Musk's April 2026 X activity, with implied probabilities hovering at 13-15% apiece, driven by his consistent 35-45 posts per day pace through the first 16 days—projecting roughly 1,200 total amid steady engagement on Starlink disputes in South Africa, U.S. politics, and Tesla updates. Short-term markets like April 10-17 (270 posts, ~38/day average) and April 13-15 (resolved ~75 over 3 days) underscore this reliability, but no dominant frontrunner emerges due to uncertainty over late-month spikes from viral controversies or slowdowns during business focus. Key differentiators include potential news catalysts like earnings reports, with resolution hinging on main feed posts, quotes, and reposts excluding most replies. Conditions can shift rapidly with Musk's cultural footprint.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions