Recent hotter-than-expected August 2026 CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month and headline inflation holding at 3.4% year-over-year, has lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 85-90%. This strengthens the case for tighter policy amid persistent energy price pressures, yet the 61.5% implied probability of no change in October reflects trader expectations that the Fed will pause after any September move due to the November midterm elections. Solid August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate add to the mixed backdrop, while the next key catalysts remain the September CPI release and FOMC communications.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSem mudança 62%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 38%
Redução de 25 pontos-base 1.4%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
$1,747,558 Vol.
$1,747,558 Vol.
28 out 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos base
1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
1%
Sem mudança
62%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
38%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
1%
Sem mudança 62%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 38%
Redução de 25 pontos-base 1.4%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
$1,747,558 Vol.
$1,747,558 Vol.
28 out 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos base
$291,517 Vol.
1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
$592,960 Vol.
1%
Sem mudança
$299,177 Vol.
62%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
$369,557 Vol.
38%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
$194,347 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected August 2026 CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month and headline inflation holding at 3.4% year-over-year, has lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 85-90%. This strengthens the case for tighter policy amid persistent energy price pressures, yet the 61.5% implied probability of no change in October reflects trader expectations that the Fed will pause after any September move due to the November midterm elections. Solid August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate add to the mixed backdrop, while the next key catalysts remain the September CPI release and FOMC communications.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,747,558Data de Término
28 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected August 2026 CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month and headline inflation holding at 3.4% year-over-year, has lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 85-90%. This strengthens the case for tighter policy amid persistent energy price pressures, yet the 61.5% implied probability of no change in October reflects trader expectations that the Fed will pause after any September move due to the November midterm elections. Solid August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate add to the mixed backdrop, while the next key catalysts remain the September CPI release and FOMC communications.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$1,747,558Data de Término
28 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected August 2026 CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month and headline inflation holding at 3.4% year-over-year, has lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 85-90%. This strengthens the case for tighter policy amid persistent energy price pressures, yet the 61.5% implied probability of no change in October reflects trader expectations that the Fed will pause after any September move due to the November midterm elections. Solid August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate add to the mixed backdrop, while the next key catalysts remain the September CPI release and FOMC communications.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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