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icon for Decisões do Fed (set-dez)
Economia·Fed

Decisões do Fed (set-dez)

icon for Decisões do Fed (set-dez)
Economia·Fed

Decisões do Fed (set-dez)

set 16

out 28

dez 9

set 16

out 28

dez 9

Aumentar–Pausar–Aumentar 26%

Aumentar–Aumentar–Pausar 20%

Aumento–Pausa–Pausa 19%

Aumentar–Aumentar–Aumentar 19%

Polymarket

$26,441 Vol.

Aumentar–Pausar–Aumentar 26%

Aumentar–Aumentar–Pausar 20%

Aumento–Pausa–Pausa 19%

Aumentar–Aumentar–Aumentar 19%

Polymarket

$26,441 Vol.

Aumentar–Pausar–Aumentar

$1,796 Vol.

26%

Aumento–Pausa–Pausa

$1,632 Vol.

19%

Aumentar–Aumentar–Aumentar

$1,611 Vol.

19%

Aumentar–Aumentar–Pausar

$1,769 Vol.

20%

Pausa–Pausa–Alta

$1,604 Vol.

2%

Pausa–Pausa–Pausa

$14,765 Vol.

11%

Pausar–Aumentar–Aumentar

$1,300 Vol.

4%

Pausar–Aumentar–Pausar

$1,572 Vol.

2%

Outro

$391 Vol.

6%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings above the 2% target, reinforced by strong August payrolls adding 162,000 jobs and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, have shifted trader focus toward potential Fed tightening through year-end. Hawkish signals from Chair Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, and recent CPI pressures tied to energy costs have lifted September hike odds near 60-98% in futures markets, while mixed prior data on retail sales and revisions keep pause scenarios competitive. The closely matched Polymarket probabilities across Hike-Pause-Hike, Hike-Hike-Pause, and similar paths reflect uncertainty over the number and sequencing of 25-basis-point moves versus holds, with upcoming September and December decisions plus incoming inflation and labor releases as key swing factors. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on these data-dependent outcomes amid a restrictive policy stance.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$26,441
Data de Término
9 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings above the 2% target, reinforced by strong August payrolls adding 162,000 jobs and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, have shifted trader focus toward potential Fed tightening through year-end. Hawkish signals from Chair Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, and recent CPI pressures tied to energy costs have lifted September hike odds near 60-98% in futures markets, while mixed prior data on retail sales and revisions keep pause scenarios competitive. The closely matched Polymarket probabilities across Hike-Pause-Hike, Hike-Hike-Pause, and similar paths reflect uncertainty over the number and sequencing of 25-basis-point moves versus holds, with upcoming September and December decisions plus incoming inflation and labor releases as key swing factors. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on these data-dependent outcomes amid a restrictive policy stance.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$26,441
Data de Término
9 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Aumento

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Decisões do Fed (set-dez)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aumentar–Pausar–Aumentar" at 26%, followed by "Aumentar–Aumentar–Pausar" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Decisões do Fed (set-dez)" has generated $26.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Decisões do Fed (set-dez)," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Decisões do Fed (set-dez)" is "Aumentar–Pausar–Aumentar" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Aumentar–Aumentar–Pausar" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Decisões do Fed (set-dez)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.