Esthela Damián Peralta leads trader pricing at 66.8% for the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial race because recent surveys show her edging ahead in Morena internal preferences within the state’s dominant party coalition. A September 2026 Massive Caller poll placed her at 24.9% among Morena-PT-PVEM voters, narrowly ahead of Beatriz Mojica Morga at 22.2%, with Abelina López Rodríguez further back. Morena consistently registers 43-63% statewide party support across multiple 2026 polls, far above the PRI and other opposition parties, making the eventual Morena nominee the prohibitive favorite. Mojica’s 28.1% market share reflects her earlier leads in June and July surveys and established Senate profile, while candidates such as Manuel Añorve Baños, Mario Moreno Arcos, and Marcial Rodríguez Saldaña remain below 2% amid limited polling traction and weaker partisan backing. The wide gap in implied probabilities tracks Morena’s structural advantage and the latest shifts in candidate preference data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEsthela Damián Peralta 66.9%
Beatriz Mojica Morga 28.1%
Mario Moreno Arcos 2.0%
Karen Castrejón Trujillo 1.9%
$36,316 Vol.
$36,316 Vol.
Esthela Damián Peralta
67%
Beatriz Mojica Morga
28%
Mario Moreno Arcos
2%
Karen Castrejón Trujillo
2%
Marcial Rodríguez Saldaña
1%
Manuel Añorve Baños
1%
Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros
1%
Julián López Galeana
1%
Yesenia Galarza Castro
<1%
Félix Salgado Macedonio
<1%
Rogelio Ortega Martínez
<1%
Alberto López Rosas
<1%
Iván Hernández Díaz
<1%
Javier Saldaña Almazán
<1%
Zeferino Gómez Valdovinos
<1%
Guadalupe Eguiluz
<1%
Gustavo Alarcón Herrera
<1%
Eloy Salmerón Díaz
<1%
Gabriela Bernal Reséndiz
<1%
Héctor Astudillo Flores
<1%
Erika Lorena Lührs
<1%
Evodio Velázquez Aguirre
<1%
Alejandro Bravo Abarca
<1%
Carlos Reyes Torres
<1%
Abelina López Rodríguez
<1%
Rubén Cayetano García
<1%
Genaro Vázquez Flores
<1%
Norma Otilia Hernández Martínez
<1%
Esthela Damián Peralta 66.9%
Beatriz Mojica Morga 28.1%
Mario Moreno Arcos 2.0%
Karen Castrejón Trujillo 1.9%
$36,316 Vol.
$36,316 Vol.
Esthela Damián Peralta
67%
Beatriz Mojica Morga
28%
Mario Moreno Arcos
2%
Karen Castrejón Trujillo
2%
Marcial Rodríguez Saldaña
1%
Manuel Añorve Baños
1%
Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros
1%
Julián López Galeana
1%
Yesenia Galarza Castro
<1%
Félix Salgado Macedonio
<1%
Rogelio Ortega Martínez
<1%
Alberto López Rosas
<1%
Iván Hernández Díaz
<1%
Javier Saldaña Almazán
<1%
Zeferino Gómez Valdovinos
<1%
Guadalupe Eguiluz
<1%
Gustavo Alarcón Herrera
<1%
Eloy Salmerón Díaz
<1%
Gabriela Bernal Reséndiz
<1%
Héctor Astudillo Flores
<1%
Erika Lorena Lührs
<1%
Evodio Velázquez Aguirre
<1%
Alejandro Bravo Abarca
<1%
Carlos Reyes Torres
<1%
Abelina López Rodríguez
<1%
Rubén Cayetano García
<1%
Genaro Vázquez Flores
<1%
Norma Otilia Hernández Martínez
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 5, 2026, 7:28 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Esthela Damián Peralta leads trader pricing at 66.8% for the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial race because recent surveys show her edging ahead in Morena internal preferences within the state’s dominant party coalition. A September 2026 Massive Caller poll placed her at 24.9% among Morena-PT-PVEM voters, narrowly ahead of Beatriz Mojica Morga at 22.2%, with Abelina López Rodríguez further back. Morena consistently registers 43-63% statewide party support across multiple 2026 polls, far above the PRI and other opposition parties, making the eventual Morena nominee the prohibitive favorite. Mojica’s 28.1% market share reflects her earlier leads in June and July surveys and established Senate profile, while candidates such as Manuel Añorve Baños, Mario Moreno Arcos, and Marcial Rodríguez Saldaña remain below 2% amid limited polling traction and weaker partisan backing. The wide gap in implied probabilities tracks Morena’s structural advantage and the latest shifts in candidate preference data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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