Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models pinpoint Ankara's high temperature on March 22 at 11-13°C, driving trader consensus toward 12°C (37.5% implied probability) as the top outcome, with 11°C (26%) and 13°C (18%) close behind. This aligns with Ankara's continental climate, where March historical highs average 12-14°C amid spring warming, but a recent cold air mass from northern Europe—evident in yesterday's 10°C high and scattered snow—has tempered expectations, per Turkish State Meteorological Service updates. Model convergence reflects stable upper-air patterns, though minor divergences could shift outcomes by 1-2°C; traders eye tomorrow's 00Z runs for confirmation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
12°C 38%
11°C 26%
13°C 18%
10°C 10%
$20,745 Vol.
$20,745 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
10%
11°C
26%
12°C
38%
13°C
18%
14°C
5%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
1%
12°C 38%
11°C 26%
13°C 18%
10°C 10%
$20,745 Vol.
$20,745 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
10%
11°C
26%
12°C
38%
13°C
18%
14°C
5%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models pinpoint Ankara's high temperature on March 22 at 11-13°C, driving trader consensus toward 12°C (37.5% implied probability) as the top outcome, with 11°C (26%) and 13°C (18%) close behind. This aligns with Ankara's continental climate, where March historical highs average 12-14°C amid spring warming, but a recent cold air mass from northern Europe—evident in yesterday's 10°C high and scattered snow—has tempered expectations, per Turkish State Meteorological Service updates. Model convergence reflects stable upper-air patterns, though minor divergences could shift outcomes by 1-2°C; traders eye tomorrow's 00Z runs for confirmation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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