Market icon

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 16?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 16?

abr 14

abr 15

abr 16

abr 14

abr 15

abr 16

29°C 37%

28°C 35%

30°C or higher 22%

27°C 14%

Polymarket
NOVO

$10,294 Vol.

29°C 37%

28°C 35%

30°C or higher 22%

27°C 14%

Polymarket
NOVO

$10,294 Vol.

20°C or below

$1,819 Vol.

<1%

21°C

$1,561 Vol.

<1%

22°C

$1,809 Vol.

<1%

23°C

$1,761 Vol.

<1%

24°C

$426 Vol.

1%

25°C

$844 Vol.

1%

26°C

$1,037 Vol.

6%

27°C

$398 Vol.

14%

28°C

$237 Vol.

35%

29°C

$215 Vol.

37%

30°C or higher

$273 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecast, issued early on April 15, projects a 25–29°C temperature range for April 16 under a southerly airstream and anticyclone aloft, fostering sunny periods and hot daytime conditions with south winds at force 3. This drives trader consensus toward 28°C (36%) and 29°C (32%), reflecting model-implied peaks near the urban Observatory site amid ample solar heating and low probability of significant rain. Differentiation hinges on cloud variability and urban heat effects, potentially capping at 28°C if partial cloudiness persists or nudging to 29°C with prolonged sunshine; 30°C or higher (17.5%) remains plausible but lower odds due to historical April baselines around 26°C and minor evening showers. Updated guidance expected midday April 16.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,294
Data de Término
16 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecast, issued early on April 15, projects a 25–29°C temperature range for April 16 under a southerly airstream and anticyclone aloft, fostering sunny periods and hot daytime conditions with south winds at force 3. This drives trader consensus toward 28°C (36%) and 29°C (32%), reflecting model-implied peaks near the urban Observatory site amid ample solar heating and low probability of significant rain. Differentiation hinges on cloud variability and urban heat effects, potentially capping at 28°C if partial cloudiness persists or nudging to 29°C with prolonged sunshine; 30°C or higher (17.5%) remains plausible but lower odds due to historical April baselines around 26°C and minor evening showers. Updated guidance expected midday April 16.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,294
Data de Término
16 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 16?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "29°C" at 37%, followed by "28°C" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 16?" has generated $10.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 16?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 16?" is "29°C" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "28°C" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 16?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.