Trader consensus favors a 33°C high in Hong Kong on August 17 at 38.5% implied probability, closely followed by 32°C and 34°C, reflecting tight forecast spreads around the Hong Kong Observatory’s latest guidance. Persistent subtropical ridging supports above-normal temperatures consistent with the seasonal outlook for August–October, while embedded showers and thunderstorms—driven by enhanced moisture convergence—introduce variability that caps extreme heating and favors outcomes clustered near the climatological peak of 31–33°C. Short-range model runs show limited disagreement on steering flow and cloud cover, with any clearer breaks potentially allowing brief spikes to 34°C. Official maximum temperature resolution at the primary station will hinge on precise timing of convective activity tomorrow.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Hong Kong em 17 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Hong Kong em 17 de agosto?
33°C 39%
32°C 30%
34°C 22%
31°C 5%
NOVO
NOVO
17 ago 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
2%
31°C
5%
32°C
30%
33°C
39%
34°C
22%
35°C
5%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 39%
32°C 30%
34°C 22%
31°C 5%
NOVO
NOVO
17 ago 2026
28°C or below
$174 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$159 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$526 Vol.
2%
31°C
$457 Vol.
5%
32°C
$813 Vol.
30%
33°C
$1,112 Vol.
39%
34°C
$1,606 Vol.
22%
35°C
$546 Vol.
5%
36°C
$267 Vol.
1%
37°C
$145 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$171 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors a 33°C high in Hong Kong on August 17 at 38.5% implied probability, closely followed by 32°C and 34°C, reflecting tight forecast spreads around the Hong Kong Observatory’s latest guidance. Persistent subtropical ridging supports above-normal temperatures consistent with the seasonal outlook for August–October, while embedded showers and thunderstorms—driven by enhanced moisture convergence—introduce variability that caps extreme heating and favors outcomes clustered near the climatological peak of 31–33°C. Short-range model runs show limited disagreement on steering flow and cloud cover, with any clearer breaks potentially allowing brief spikes to 34°C. Official maximum temperature resolution at the primary station will hinge on precise timing of convective activity tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
Volume
$5,976Data de Término
17 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors a 33°C high in Hong Kong on August 17 at 38.5% implied probability, closely followed by 32°C and 34°C, reflecting tight forecast spreads around the Hong Kong Observatory’s latest guidance. Persistent subtropical ridging supports above-normal temperatures consistent with the seasonal outlook for August–October, while embedded showers and thunderstorms—driven by enhanced moisture convergence—introduce variability that caps extreme heating and favors outcomes clustered near the climatological peak of 31–33°C. Short-range model runs show limited disagreement on steering flow and cloud cover, with any clearer breaks potentially allowing brief spikes to 34°C. Official maximum temperature resolution at the primary station will hinge on precise timing of convective activity tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,976Data de Término
17 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a 33°C high in Hong Kong on August 17 at 38.5% implied probability, closely followed by 32°C and 34°C, reflecting tight forecast spreads around the Hong Kong Observatory’s latest guidance. Persistent subtropical ridging supports above-normal temperatures consistent with the seasonal outlook for August–October, while embedded showers and thunderstorms—driven by enhanced moisture convergence—introduce variability that caps extreme heating and favors outcomes clustered near the climatological peak of 31–33°C. Short-range model runs show limited disagreement on steering flow and cloud cover, with any clearer breaks potentially allowing brief spikes to 34°C. Official maximum temperature resolution at the primary station will hinge on precise timing of convective activity tomorrow.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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