Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 13°C (39%) in Istanbul today, closely trailed by 12°C (32%) and 14°C (20%), driven by Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) observations of persistent very cloudy conditions and northerly winds capping daytime heating around midday peaks near 13°C. Differentiating factors hinge on cloud cover duration amid a stable cool air mass: unbroken overcast and reduced insolation limit maxima to 12°C, while afternoon partial clearing could boost shortwave radiation enough for 14°C. Global models like ECMWF and GFS show consensus on subdued boundary layer warming, below April climatological averages of 16°C. Monitor MGM hourly updates and official station data through evening for resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 15?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 15?
13°C 40%
12°C 31%
14°C 20%
15°C 4.5%
$25,811 Vol.
$25,811 Vol.
10°C or below
1%
11°C
4%
12°C
31%
13°C
40%
14°C
20%
15°C
5%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
13°C 40%
12°C 31%
14°C 20%
15°C 4.5%
$25,811 Vol.
$25,811 Vol.
10°C or below
1%
11°C
4%
12°C
31%
13°C
40%
14°C
20%
15°C
5%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 13°C (39%) in Istanbul today, closely trailed by 12°C (32%) and 14°C (20%), driven by Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) observations of persistent very cloudy conditions and northerly winds capping daytime heating around midday peaks near 13°C. Differentiating factors hinge on cloud cover duration amid a stable cool air mass: unbroken overcast and reduced insolation limit maxima to 12°C, while afternoon partial clearing could boost shortwave radiation enough for 14°C. Global models like ECMWF and GFS show consensus on subdued boundary layer warming, below April climatological averages of 16°C. Monitor MGM hourly updates and official station data through evening for resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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