Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 33% implied probability on a 20°C high temperature in Tokyo on April 16, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts showing partly cloudy conditions and highs clustering around 19–21°C amid mild southerly flows. Recent observations reveal above-normal early April warmth, including a 27°C peak on April 11 under high pressure, but cooling frontal influences over the past 48 hours have tempered expectations, boosting odds for 19°C and 21°C at 18.5% each. Key variables include cloud cover variability, urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, and sea breeze timing, which could push outcomes toward 22°C+ (14.5% combined) or cooler 18°C (5%). JMA updates expected hourly through resolution heighten near-term uncertainty in this precise measurement market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 16?
20°C 34%
19°C 17%
22°C 15%
21°C 15%
NOVO
NOVO
16 abr 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
5%
19°C
17%
20°C
34%
21°C
15%
22°C
15%
23°C
13%
24°C or higher
9%
20°C 34%
19°C 17%
22°C 15%
21°C 15%
NOVO
NOVO
16 abr 2026
14°C or below
$541 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$528 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$438 Vol.
1%
17°C
$1,053 Vol.
3%
18°C
$379 Vol.
5%
19°C
$506 Vol.
17%
20°C
$281 Vol.
34%
21°C
$200 Vol.
15%
22°C
$200 Vol.
15%
23°C
$224 Vol.
13%
24°C or higher
$580 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 33% implied probability on a 20°C high temperature in Tokyo on April 16, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts showing partly cloudy conditions and highs clustering around 19–21°C amid mild southerly flows. Recent observations reveal above-normal early April warmth, including a 27°C peak on April 11 under high pressure, but cooling frontal influences over the past 48 hours have tempered expectations, boosting odds for 19°C and 21°C at 18.5% each. Key variables include cloud cover variability, urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, and sea breeze timing, which could push outcomes toward 22°C+ (14.5% combined) or cooler 18°C (5%). JMA updates expected hourly through resolution heighten near-term uncertainty in this precise measurement market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ET
Volume
$4,781Data de Término
16 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 33% implied probability on a 20°C high temperature in Tokyo on April 16, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts showing partly cloudy conditions and highs clustering around 19–21°C amid mild southerly flows. Recent observations reveal above-normal early April warmth, including a 27°C peak on April 11 under high pressure, but cooling frontal influences over the past 48 hours have tempered expectations, boosting odds for 19°C and 21°C at 18.5% each. Key variables include cloud cover variability, urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, and sea breeze timing, which could push outcomes toward 22°C+ (14.5% combined) or cooler 18°C (5%). JMA updates expected hourly through resolution heighten near-term uncertainty in this precise measurement market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,781Data de Término
16 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 33% implied probability on a 20°C high temperature in Tokyo on April 16, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts showing partly cloudy conditions and highs clustering around 19–21°C amid mild southerly flows. Recent observations reveal above-normal early April warmth, including a 27°C peak on April 11 under high pressure, but cooling frontal influences over the past 48 hours have tempered expectations, boosting odds for 19°C and 21°C at 18.5% each. Key variables include cloud cover variability, urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, and sea breeze timing, which could push outcomes toward 22°C+ (14.5% combined) or cooler 18°C (5%). JMA updates expected hourly through resolution heighten near-term uncertainty in this precise measurement market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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