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Política·Hungria

Eleições parlamentares na Hungria: Vencedor do Voto Popular

Market icon
Política·Hungria

Eleições parlamentares na Hungria: Vencedor do Voto Popular

Tisza 99.6%

Fidesz–KDNP <1%

Outro <1%

Polymarket

$1,818,359 Vol.

Tisza 99.6%

Fidesz–KDNP <1%

Outro <1%

Polymarket

$1,818,359 Vol.

O Fidesz–KDNP ganhará a maioria dos votos da lista nacional nas eleições parlamentares húngaras de 2026? icon

Fidesz–KDNP

$699,400 Vol.

<1%

Tisza obterá o maior número de votos na lista nacional nas eleições parlamentares húngaras de 2026? icon

Tisza

$798,918 Vol.

100%

Outro partido vencerá a maioria dos votos da lista nacional nas eleições parlamentares húngaras de 2026? icon

Outro

$320,040 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Péter Magyar's Tisza Party clinched a decisive victory in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, capturing over 52% of the national list vote—widely interpreted as the popular vote—against Fidesz–KDNP's roughly 39%, with record turnout amplifying the shift. Viktor Orbán conceded defeat shortly after polls closed, as projections confirmed Tisza's supermajority in the 199-seat National Assembly, ending his 16-year rule amid voter frustration over corruption and economic woes. Traders price Tisza at 99.7% implied probability, reflecting near-final tallies exceeding 98% counted and no credible disputes. Only extraordinary developments like successful legal challenges, widespread recounts, or procedural anomalies could shift resolution, though margins make this improbable.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.

This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.

This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.

If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”

If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.

Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Volume
$1,818,359
Data de Término
12 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Péter Magyar's Tisza Party clinched a decisive victory in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, capturing over 52% of the national list vote—widely interpreted as the popular vote—against Fidesz–KDNP's roughly 39%, with record turnout amplifying the shift. Viktor Orbán conceded defeat shortly after polls closed, as projections confirmed Tisza's supermajority in the 199-seat National Assembly, ending his 16-year rule amid voter frustration over corruption and economic woes. Traders price Tisza at 99.7% implied probability, reflecting near-final tallies exceeding 98% counted and no credible disputes. Only extraordinary developments like successful legal challenges, widespread recounts, or procedural anomalies could shift resolution, though margins make this improbable.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.

This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.

This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.

If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”

If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.

Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Volume
$1,818,359
Data de Término
12 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleições parlamentares na Hungria: Vencedor do Voto Popular" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tisza" at 100%, followed by "Fidesz–KDNP" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eleições parlamentares na Hungria: Vencedor do Voto Popular" has generated $1.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eleições parlamentares na Hungria: Vencedor do Voto Popular," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleições parlamentares na Hungria: Vencedor do Voto Popular" is "Tisza" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Fidesz–KDNP" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleições parlamentares na Hungria: Vencedor do Voto Popular" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.