Fed Chair Jerome Powell faces no active criminal charges or indictments as of mid-2026, following the Department of Justice's April closure of its probe into Federal Reserve headquarters renovation costs and related congressional testimony. This outcome, combined with Powell's institutional stature and the absence of new enforcement actions, underpins the market's 98% implied probability against incarceration before 2027. Traders price in the high bar for prosecuting a sitting central bank leader, where any case would require substantiated evidence of wrongdoing amid ongoing monetary policy responsibilities. Tail risks remain limited but include potential reopening of inquiries under shifting political conditions or unforeseen disclosures, though such paths lack current substantiation in regulatory filings or official statements.