The strong Republican lean of Louisiana's 1st congressional district, reflected in its R+19 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 90.5%. Incumbent Steve Scalise, who has held the seat since 2008 and secured 66.8% in 2024, faces limited opposition in the November 2026 primary under the state's nonpartisan system, with declared challengers including Democrat Lauren Jewett. The district's suburban New Orleans base and voting history limit Democratic viability absent major shifts. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include a late scandal involving the incumbent, health-related withdrawal, or an unusually strong national Democratic midterm performance capable of narrowing typical margins in this safely Republican territory.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoLA-01 Vencedor da eleição da casa
LA-01 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$37,603 Vol.
$37,603 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
91%
Partido Democrata
9%
$37,603 Vol.
$37,603 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$16,105 Vol.
91%
Partido Democrata
$21,498 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of Louisiana's 1st congressional district, reflected in its R+19 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 90.5%. Incumbent Steve Scalise, who has held the seat since 2008 and secured 66.8% in 2024, faces limited opposition in the November 2026 primary under the state's nonpartisan system, with declared challengers including Democrat Lauren Jewett. The district's suburban New Orleans base and voting history limit Democratic viability absent major shifts. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include a late scandal involving the incumbent, health-related withdrawal, or an unusually strong national Democratic midterm performance capable of narrowing typical margins in this safely Republican territory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$37,603Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of Louisiana's 1st congressional district, reflected in its R+19 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 90.5%. Incumbent Steve Scalise, who has held the seat since 2008 and secured 66.8% in 2024, faces limited opposition in the November 2026 primary under the state's nonpartisan system, with declared challengers including Democrat Lauren Jewett. The district's suburban New Orleans base and voting history limit Democratic viability absent major shifts. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include a late scandal involving the incumbent, health-related withdrawal, or an unusually strong national Democratic midterm performance capable of narrowing typical margins in this safely Republican territory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$37,603Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Republican lean of Louisiana's 1st congressional district, reflected in its R+19 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 90.5%. Incumbent Steve Scalise, who has held the seat since 2008 and secured 66.8% in 2024, faces limited opposition in the November 2026 primary under the state's nonpartisan system, with declared challengers including Democrat Lauren Jewett. The district's suburban New Orleans base and voting history limit Democratic viability absent major shifts. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include a late scandal involving the incumbent, health-related withdrawal, or an unusually strong national Democratic midterm performance capable of narrowing typical margins in this safely Republican territory.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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