Incumbent Mike Johnson, the Republican Speaker of the House, faces minimal opposition in Louisiana's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, primary under the state's adjusted majority-vote system. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its R+26 Partisan Voter Index and the incumbent's 2024 reelection margin exceeding 70 points. Johnson's fundraising exceeds $20 million against under $300,000 combined for Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich, while Republican primary opponents remain low-profile. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican reflects these structural advantages and the district's consistent electoral history. Potential shifts could arise from unforeseen developments such as major scandals, health issues, or late national political realignments that alter turnout or candidate viability before the December 12 runoff if needed.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoLA-04 House Election Winner
LA-04 House Election Winner
$11,997 Vol.
$11,997 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$11,997 Vol.
$11,997 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
$3,671 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$8,326 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Johnson, the Republican Speaker of the House, faces minimal opposition in Louisiana's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, primary under the state's adjusted majority-vote system. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its R+26 Partisan Voter Index and the incumbent's 2024 reelection margin exceeding 70 points. Johnson's fundraising exceeds $20 million against under $300,000 combined for Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich, while Republican primary opponents remain low-profile. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican reflects these structural advantages and the district's consistent electoral history. Potential shifts could arise from unforeseen developments such as major scandals, health issues, or late national political realignments that alter turnout or candidate viability before the December 12 runoff if needed.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$11,997Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Johnson, the Republican Speaker of the House, faces minimal opposition in Louisiana's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, primary under the state's adjusted majority-vote system. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its R+26 Partisan Voter Index and the incumbent's 2024 reelection margin exceeding 70 points. Johnson's fundraising exceeds $20 million against under $300,000 combined for Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich, while Republican primary opponents remain low-profile. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican reflects these structural advantages and the district's consistent electoral history. Potential shifts could arise from unforeseen developments such as major scandals, health issues, or late national political realignments that alter turnout or candidate viability before the December 12 runoff if needed.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,997Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Mike Johnson, the Republican Speaker of the House, faces minimal opposition in Louisiana's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, primary under the state's adjusted majority-vote system. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its R+26 Partisan Voter Index and the incumbent's 2024 reelection margin exceeding 70 points. Johnson's fundraising exceeds $20 million against under $300,000 combined for Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich, while Republican primary opponents remain low-profile. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican reflects these structural advantages and the district's consistent electoral history. Potential shifts could arise from unforeseen developments such as major scandals, health issues, or late national political realignments that alter turnout or candidate viability before the December 12 runoff if needed.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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