Trader consensus slightly favors Luis Antonio Revilla at 40.8% implied probability over Felix Patzi's 37.1% in Bolivia's La Paz gubernatorial race, driven by persistent tight polls showing margins under 5 points amid regional divisions. Revilla draws urban support through Sol.bo party infrastructure pledges, while former governor Patzi leverages Jallalla's indigenous Aymara base and autonomy focus, neutralizing national MAS fractures. Recent catalysts like October debates and minor endorsements have failed to widen gaps, sustaining the deadlock. Potential separators include final polls, MAS leadership interventions, or highland turnout shifts ahead of election day, as traders price in these uncertainties.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para governador de La Paz (Bolívia)
Vencedor da eleição para governador de La Paz (Bolívia)
Luis Antonio Revilla 40.6%
Felix Patzi 19.3%
Richard Andrés Gómez 6.6%
René Yahuasi Calamani 6.2%
$21,054 Vol.
$21,054 Vol.
Luis Antonio Revilla
41%
Felix Patzi
37%
Richard Andrés Gómez
7%
René Yahuasi Calamani
6%
Santos Quispe Quispe
4%
Ingvar Ellefsen Dotzauer
1%
Demetrio Villca
1%
Gualberto Cusi
1%
Rafael Quispe Flores
<1%
Augusto Saturnino Oblitas
<1%
Orlando Callisaya
<1%
Germán Riveros
<1%
Clemente Gutiérrez
<1%
Fidel Chura
<1%
Leopoldo Richar Chui
<1%
Luis Antonio Revilla 40.6%
Felix Patzi 19.3%
Richard Andrés Gómez 6.6%
René Yahuasi Calamani 6.2%
$21,054 Vol.
$21,054 Vol.
Luis Antonio Revilla
41%
Felix Patzi
37%
Richard Andrés Gómez
7%
René Yahuasi Calamani
6%
Santos Quispe Quispe
4%
Ingvar Ellefsen Dotzauer
1%
Demetrio Villca
1%
Gualberto Cusi
1%
Rafael Quispe Flores
<1%
Augusto Saturnino Oblitas
<1%
Orlando Callisaya
<1%
Germán Riveros
<1%
Clemente Gutiérrez
<1%
Fidel Chura
<1%
Leopoldo Richar Chui
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 20, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus slightly favors Luis Antonio Revilla at 40.8% implied probability over Felix Patzi's 37.1% in Bolivia's La Paz gubernatorial race, driven by persistent tight polls showing margins under 5 points amid regional divisions. Revilla draws urban support through Sol.bo party infrastructure pledges, while former governor Patzi leverages Jallalla's indigenous Aymara base and autonomy focus, neutralizing national MAS fractures. Recent catalysts like October debates and minor endorsements have failed to widen gaps, sustaining the deadlock. Potential separators include final polls, MAS leadership interventions, or highland turnout shifts ahead of election day, as traders price in these uncertainties.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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