Persistent high pressure and clear skies over central Texas are keeping overnight radiative cooling modest, with National Weather Service guidance pointing to minimum temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s for Austin on August 22. Model spreads arise mainly from small differences in forecast dew points, light south-southeast winds, and urban heat-island effects that limit how far temperatures can fall after sunset. Climatologically, Austin’s August overnight lows average near 74–75 °F; the tightly bunched market probabilities across the 70–77 °F bins capture the narrow window between typical August conditions and the slightly warmer readings favored by current guidance. Updated NWS and short-range model runs tonight and tomorrow morning remain the key data points that could shift the final observed minimum.