Recent forecasts from multiple models, including detailed hourly projections, indicate a minimum temperature for Buenos Aires on August 22 likely between 4°C and 6°C overnight into early morning under clear to partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds. This supports the market's leading 1°C-or-higher outcome while leaving room for slight downward revisions if radiational cooling strengthens under calm conditions or if model runs shift. The close clustering of probabilities around 0°C to 1°C versus modest negatives reflects uncertainty in exact overnight lows, driven by variables such as dew point depression, surface pressure trends near 1025–1027 hPa, and the potential for localized frost pockets. Historical August minima rarely dip below 0°C in the city, but current cooler-than-average patterns elevate sensitivity to small forecast adjustments before resolution.