**Forecast models from multiple sources indicate a minimum temperature near 11°C for Buenos Aires on September 1, 2026, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light easterly or southeasterly winds.** This places the expected low in the middle of the market’s single-degree bins (around 23–25% implied probability each), while the elevated 49.5% on “6°C or below” likely reflects trader caution over possible late-model cooling or greater overnight radiative cooling if skies clear more than expected. The 29.5% on “16°C or higher” captures residual warm-air advection risk if winds shift. September climatology shows typical overnight lows near 9°C, so current guidance sits slightly above average. A stronger cold front is projected to arrive later in the week (around September 4–5), dropping subsequent lows toward 6–7°C, which may be influencing some market positioning for the 1st. Short-range ensemble guidance remains tightly clustered around 10–12°C, with limited spread at this 48-hour lead time. Updated runs from Argentina’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models will be the key near-term catalysts for any odds movement.