Recent weather model consensus from agencies like NOAA and ECMWF points to clear skies and light winds over Madrid on September 15, favoring moderate overnight radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32–35°C. This setup typically yields a minimum of 18–21°C, aligning with late-summer climatology where the historical average low sits at 15.5°C. Trader emphasis on the 12°C-or-below outcome at 45.5% implied probability reflects residual model spread and the possibility of stronger cooling under calm conditions or slight forecast revisions, while probabilities clustered around 16–17°C capture the central tendency of current guidance. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus any updated AEMET observations, will refine these ranges before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Madrid a 15 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Madrid a 15 de setembro?
12°C ou menos 86%
22°C ou mais 60%
16°C 30%
15°C 25%
NOVO
NOVO
15 set 2026
12°C ou menos
86%
13°C
17%
14°C
22%
15°C
25%
16°C
30%
17°C
22%
18°C
22%
19°C
21%
20°C
21%
21°C
13%
22°C ou mais
60%
12°C ou menos 86%
22°C ou mais 60%
16°C 30%
15°C 25%
NOVO
NOVO
15 set 2026
12°C ou menos
$10 Vol.
86%
13°C
$10 Vol.
17%
14°C
$0 Vol.
22%
15°C
$0 Vol.
25%
16°C
$0 Vol.
30%
17°C
$0 Vol.
22%
18°C
$0 Vol.
22%
19°C
$0 Vol.
21%
20°C
$8 Vol.
21%
21°C
$10 Vol.
13%
22°C ou mais
$10 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from agencies like NOAA and ECMWF points to clear skies and light winds over Madrid on September 15, favoring moderate overnight radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32–35°C. This setup typically yields a minimum of 18–21°C, aligning with late-summer climatology where the historical average low sits at 15.5°C. Trader emphasis on the 12°C-or-below outcome at 45.5% implied probability reflects residual model spread and the possibility of stronger cooling under calm conditions or slight forecast revisions, while probabilities clustered around 16–17°C capture the central tendency of current guidance. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus any updated AEMET observations, will refine these ranges before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$48Data de Término
15 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from agencies like NOAA and ECMWF points to clear skies and light winds over Madrid on September 15, favoring moderate overnight radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32–35°C. This setup typically yields a minimum of 18–21°C, aligning with late-summer climatology where the historical average low sits at 15.5°C. Trader emphasis on the 12°C-or-below outcome at 45.5% implied probability reflects residual model spread and the possibility of stronger cooling under calm conditions or slight forecast revisions, while probabilities clustered around 16–17°C capture the central tendency of current guidance. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus any updated AEMET observations, will refine these ranges before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$48Data de Término
15 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus from agencies like NOAA and ECMWF points to clear skies and light winds over Madrid on September 15, favoring moderate overnight radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32–35°C. This setup typically yields a minimum of 18–21°C, aligning with late-summer climatology where the historical average low sits at 15.5°C. Trader emphasis on the 12°C-or-below outcome at 45.5% implied probability reflects residual model spread and the possibility of stronger cooling under calm conditions or slight forecast revisions, while probabilities clustered around 16–17°C capture the central tendency of current guidance. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus any updated AEMET observations, will refine these ranges before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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