The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–27°C for Manila’s August 26 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty in the southwest monsoon regime, where variable cloud cover, rainfall intensity, and wind patterns control nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance from PAGASA and global models shows typical late-August minima near 24–26°C, but scattered showers or thicker monsoon clouds can suppress temperatures by 1–2°C while clearer breaks allow slight warming. With resolution hinging on the precise daily minimum recorded at the primary Manila station, traders are weighting near-term model consensus runs and any updates to tropical disturbance tracking that could alter steering flow or precipitation over the next 48 hours.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Manila em 26 de agosto?
Temperatura mais baixa em Manila em 26 de agosto?
21°C ou menos 53%
31°C ou mais 53%
25°C 50%
23°C 48%
NOVO
NOVO
26 ago 2026
21°C ou menos
53%
22°C
20%
23°C
48%
24°C
48%
25°C
50%
26°C
26%
27°C
26%
28°C
48%
29°C
48%
30°C
2%
31°C ou mais
53%
21°C ou menos 53%
31°C ou mais 53%
25°C 50%
23°C 48%
NOVO
NOVO
26 ago 2026
21°C ou menos
$0 Vol.
53%
22°C
$0 Vol.
20%
23°C
$0 Vol.
48%
24°C
$0 Vol.
48%
25°C
$0 Vol.
50%
26°C
$0 Vol.
26%
27°C
$0 Vol.
26%
28°C
$0 Vol.
48%
29°C
$0 Vol.
48%
30°C
$0 Vol.
2%
31°C ou mais
$0 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–27°C for Manila’s August 26 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty in the southwest monsoon regime, where variable cloud cover, rainfall intensity, and wind patterns control nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance from PAGASA and global models shows typical late-August minima near 24–26°C, but scattered showers or thicker monsoon clouds can suppress temperatures by 1–2°C while clearer breaks allow slight warming. With resolution hinging on the precise daily minimum recorded at the primary Manila station, traders are weighting near-term model consensus runs and any updates to tropical disturbance tracking that could alter steering flow or precipitation over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
26 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–27°C for Manila’s August 26 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty in the southwest monsoon regime, where variable cloud cover, rainfall intensity, and wind patterns control nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance from PAGASA and global models shows typical late-August minima near 24–26°C, but scattered showers or thicker monsoon clouds can suppress temperatures by 1–2°C while clearer breaks allow slight warming. With resolution hinging on the precise daily minimum recorded at the primary Manila station, traders are weighting near-term model consensus runs and any updates to tropical disturbance tracking that could alter steering flow or precipitation over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Data de Término
26 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–27°C for Manila’s August 26 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty in the southwest monsoon regime, where variable cloud cover, rainfall intensity, and wind patterns control nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance from PAGASA and global models shows typical late-August minima near 24–26°C, but scattered showers or thicker monsoon clouds can suppress temperatures by 1–2°C while clearer breaks allow slight warming. With resolution hinging on the precise daily minimum recorded at the primary Manila station, traders are weighting near-term model consensus runs and any updates to tropical disturbance tracking that could alter steering flow or precipitation over the next 48 hours.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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