**Trader consensus at 99.6% for a 12°C low on September 12, 2026, reflects official forecast guidance and model consensus pointing to an overnight minimum near that threshold.** Mid-September climatology for Paris places the average daily low around 12°C, and current conditions under a stable high-pressure regime with light winds and limited cloud cover have supported efficient radiative cooling. Hourly model outputs and station guidance consistently show temperatures bottoming near 12°C before dawn, with daytime highs rising to 24–26°C. This alignment of numerical weather prediction, recent observations, and historical baselines has produced the near-certain market-implied probability. A realistic challenge would require either persistent low-level cloud or stronger advection of warmer air that raises the minimum by 1–2°C, though such shifts appear unlikely given the current synoptic setup.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Paris no dia 12 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Paris no dia 12 de setembro?
12°C 99.6%
8°C ou menos <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$18,024 Vol.
$18,024 Vol.
12 set 2026
8°C ou menos
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
100%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C ou mais
<1%
12°C 99.6%
8°C ou menos <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$18,024 Vol.
$18,024 Vol.
12 set 2026
8°C ou menos
$95 Vol.
1%
9°C
$15 Vol.
1%
10°C
$95 Vol.
1%
11°C
$1,171 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$2,347 Vol.
100%
13°C
$11,518 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$2,498 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$234 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
18°C ou mais
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 99.6% for a 12°C low on September 12, 2026, reflects official forecast guidance and model consensus pointing to an overnight minimum near that threshold.**
Mid-September climatology for Paris places the average daily low around 12°C, and current conditions under a stable high-pressure regime with light winds and limited cloud cover have supported efficient radiative cooling. Hourly model outputs and station guidance consistently show temperatures bottoming near 12°C before dawn, with daytime highs rising to 24–26°C. This alignment of numerical weather prediction, recent observations, and historical baselines has produced the near-certain market-implied probability.
A realistic challenge would require either persistent low-level cloud or stronger advection of warmer air that raises the minimum by 1–2°C, though such shifts appear unlikely given the current synoptic setup.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$18,024Data de Término
12 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 99.6% for a 12°C low on September 12, 2026, reflects official forecast guidance and model consensus pointing to an overnight minimum near that threshold.**
Mid-September climatology for Paris places the average daily low around 12°C, and current conditions under a stable high-pressure regime with light winds and limited cloud cover have supported efficient radiative cooling. Hourly model outputs and station guidance consistently show temperatures bottoming near 12°C before dawn, with daytime highs rising to 24–26°C. This alignment of numerical weather prediction, recent observations, and historical baselines has produced the near-certain market-implied probability.
A realistic challenge would require either persistent low-level cloud or stronger advection of warmer air that raises the minimum by 1–2°C, though such shifts appear unlikely given the current synoptic setup.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$18,024Data de Término
12 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus at 99.6% for a 12°C low on September 12, 2026, reflects official forecast guidance and model consensus pointing to an overnight minimum near that threshold.** Mid-September climatology for Paris places the average daily low around 12°C, and current conditions under a stable high-pressure regime with light winds and limited cloud cover have supported efficient radiative cooling. Hourly model outputs and station guidance consistently show temperatures bottoming near 12°C before dawn, with daytime highs rising to 24–26°C. This alignment of numerical weather prediction, recent observations, and historical baselines has produced the near-certain market-implied probability. A realistic challenge would require either persistent low-level cloud or stronger advection of warmer air that raises the minimum by 1–2°C, though such shifts appear unlikely given the current synoptic setup.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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