Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, covering southern and south-central areas including Norman and Lawton, maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and prior election margins exceeding 20 points. Incumbent Tom Cole, seeking reelection in the November 2026 general election, holds substantial fundraising advantages and faces only a minor primary challenge on June 16, while Democratic contenders compete in their own primary the same day. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican due to consistent voter patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. The 93.5% Republican consensus in trader pricing aligns with these structural factors, though outcomes could shift only under extraordinary circumstances such as an unexpected primary upset followed by general-election turmoil or late-cycle national realignment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOK-04 Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara
OK-04 Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara
$22,501 Vol.
$22,501 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
94%
Partido Democrata
5%
$22,501 Vol.
$22,501 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$14,337 Vol.
94%
Partido Democrata
$8,164 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, covering southern and south-central areas including Norman and Lawton, maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and prior election margins exceeding 20 points. Incumbent Tom Cole, seeking reelection in the November 2026 general election, holds substantial fundraising advantages and faces only a minor primary challenge on June 16, while Democratic contenders compete in their own primary the same day. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican due to consistent voter patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. The 93.5% Republican consensus in trader pricing aligns with these structural factors, though outcomes could shift only under extraordinary circumstances such as an unexpected primary upset followed by general-election turmoil or late-cycle national realignment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$22,501Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, covering southern and south-central areas including Norman and Lawton, maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and prior election margins exceeding 20 points. Incumbent Tom Cole, seeking reelection in the November 2026 general election, holds substantial fundraising advantages and faces only a minor primary challenge on June 16, while Democratic contenders compete in their own primary the same day. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican due to consistent voter patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. The 93.5% Republican consensus in trader pricing aligns with these structural factors, though outcomes could shift only under extraordinary circumstances such as an unexpected primary upset followed by general-election turmoil or late-cycle national realignment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,501Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, covering southern and south-central areas including Norman and Lawton, maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and prior election margins exceeding 20 points. Incumbent Tom Cole, seeking reelection in the November 2026 general election, holds substantial fundraising advantages and faces only a minor primary challenge on June 16, while Democratic contenders compete in their own primary the same day. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican due to consistent voter patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. The 93.5% Republican consensus in trader pricing aligns with these structural factors, though outcomes could shift only under extraordinary circumstances such as an unexpected primary upset followed by general-election turmoil or late-cycle national realignment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions