Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris

Name: Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris
Start: 2025-10-23T00:14:20.301Z
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris — Discussão

nicoco89 · 2025-10-23T00:14:20.301Z

Discussão sobre Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris. Os traders compartilham insights e previsões no Polymarket.

Política·Eleições Globais

Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris

Emmanuel Grégoire 80%

Rachida Dati 21%

Sophia Chikirou <1%

Pierre-Yves Bournazel <1%

$21,688,546 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

Emmanuel Grégoire

$999,805 Vol.

80%

Rachida Dati

$1,132,951 Vol.

21%

Sophia Chikirou

$907,812 Vol.

<1%

Pierre-Yves Bournazel

$3,241,328 Vol.

<1%

Sarah Knafo

$4,683,368 Vol.

<1%

David Belliard

$7,870,055 Vol.

<1%

Thierry Mariani

$2,853,221 Vol.

<1%

Emmanuel Grégoire 80%

Rachida Dati 21%

Sophia Chikirou <1%

Pierre-Yves Bournazel <1%

$21,688,546 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

Emmanuel Grégoire

$999,805 Vol.

80%

Rachida Dati

$1,132,951 Vol.

21%

Sophia Chikirou

$907,812 Vol.

<1%

Pierre-Yves Bournazel

$3,241,328 Vol.

<1%

Sarah Knafo

$4,683,368 Vol.

<1%

David Belliard

$7,870,055 Vol.

<1%

Thierry Mariani

$2,853,221 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Trader consensus in the Paris mayoral election market heavily favors Emmanuel Grégoire at 79.5% implied probability, driven by his position as first deputy mayor, Anne Hidalgo's endorsement signaling a Socialist succession, and recent polls showing him leading with 30-35% support in a fragmented field ahead of the 2026 vote. Éric Grégoire garners 33%, reflecting niche trader bets on an upset from a lesser-known conservative aligned with local dynamics, while Rachida Dati's 20.5% stems from her high-profile justice minister role and Les Républicains backing despite Paris's left tilt. Low odds for Bournazel, Knafo, Chikirou, Belliard, and Mariani highlight limited traction for other centrists, far-right, and leftist challengers. Hidalgo's recent re-election abstention has boosted Grégoire, with Socialist primaries and national coalition shifts as key near-term movers.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado Mar 21, 2026, 12:07 AM UTC

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Emmanuel Grégoire" at 80%, followed by "Rachida Dati" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 80¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris" has generated $21.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris" is "Emmanuel Grégoire" at 80%, meaning the market assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Rachida Dati" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $21.7 million traded on “Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 80¢ for "Emmanuel Grégoire" in the "Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 80% chance that "Emmanuel Grégoire" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 80¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 20¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Mar 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris" market has an active community of 566 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris

Eleições para a Câmara Municipal de Paris

Regras

Contexto de Mercado

Contexto de Mercado

Comentários (566)

Top Holders

Cargos

Actividade

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