Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Enrique Leaño at 52.6% implied probability to win Bolivia's Sucre mayoral election, driven by recent polls showing his lead among undecided voters in Chuquisaca department, bolstered by his track record as a local councilor and appeals to urban middle-class concerns over infrastructure and security. Cristian Sanabria trails at 24.5%, supported by MAS party machinery but hampered by national scandals eroding ruling party turnout. Lower odds for Wilber Chocamani and others reflect fragmented opposition votes. A televised debate last week boosted Leaño's momentum, while upcoming runoff rules could consolidate anti-MAS support; election set for late 2024 amid economic pressures.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição municipal de Sucre (Bolívia)
Vencedor da eleição municipal de Sucre (Bolívia)
Enrique Leaño 51.1%
Cristian Sanabria 9%
Horacio Poppe 3.0%
Erick Marcelo Pedrazas López 2.8%
$23,803 Vol.
$23,803 Vol.

Enrique Leaño
51%

Cristian Sanabria
18%

Horacio Poppe
3%

Erick Marcelo Pedrazas López
3%

Richard Moscoso
3%

Juan Antonio Jesús
1%

Pablo Arízaga
11%

Franz Tata García
1%

Cecilia Calani
1%

Fátima Tardío
1%

Wilber Chocamani
6%

Hebert Marcelo Terrazas
5%
Enrique Leaño 51.1%
Cristian Sanabria 9%
Horacio Poppe 3.0%
Erick Marcelo Pedrazas López 2.8%
$23,803 Vol.
$23,803 Vol.

Enrique Leaño
51%

Cristian Sanabria
18%

Horacio Poppe
3%

Erick Marcelo Pedrazas López
3%

Richard Moscoso
3%

Juan Antonio Jesús
1%

Pablo Arízaga
11%

Franz Tata García
1%

Cecilia Calani
1%

Fátima Tardío
1%

Wilber Chocamani
6%

Hebert Marcelo Terrazas
5%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 6, 2026, 5:19 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Enrique Leaño at 52.6% implied probability to win Bolivia's Sucre mayoral election, driven by recent polls showing his lead among undecided voters in Chuquisaca department, bolstered by his track record as a local councilor and appeals to urban middle-class concerns over infrastructure and security. Cristian Sanabria trails at 24.5%, supported by MAS party machinery but hampered by national scandals eroding ruling party turnout. Lower odds for Wilber Chocamani and others reflect fragmented opposition votes. A televised debate last week boosted Leaño's momentum, while upcoming runoff rules could consolidate anti-MAS support; election set for late 2024 amid economic pressures.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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