Republican Chris Gober secured the nomination for Texas’s 10th congressional district after winning the March 2026 primary outright with 51 percent, while Democrat Caitlin Rourk advanced from her primary with 61 percent. The open seat, created by incumbent Michael McCaul’s retirement, sits in a district with a strong Republican tilt reflected in its Cook Political Report Solid R rating and partisan voting index. Traders assign the Republican nominee an 83 percent implied probability of victory, consistent with the district’s recent election margins and limited Democratic performance in statewide polling aggregates. No major developments have altered the race outlook in recent weeks, leaving the general election contest on November 3, 2026, as the primary remaining variable.