The US military has operated as an all-volunteer force since 1973, and authorizing a draft in 2026 would require Congress to pass specific legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction—an action that remains absent despite the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act’s provisions for automatic Selective Service registration starting in December. Bipartisan support has focused on streamlining registration rates rather than conscription, while senior officials have stated no draft is planned amid ongoing Middle East tensions. This consensus reflects high procedural and political barriers, including the need for supermajority backing in a divided Congress and strong historical preference for voluntary recruitment. Late-session emergency legislation tied to major escalation with a peer adversary remains a narrow pathway that could still shift probabilities before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
5% chance
$521,368 Vol.
$521,368 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
5% chance
$521,368 Vol.
$521,368 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The US military has operated as an all-volunteer force since 1973, and authorizing a draft in 2026 would require Congress to pass specific legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction—an action that remains absent despite the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act’s provisions for automatic Selective Service registration starting in December. Bipartisan support has focused on streamlining registration rates rather than conscription, while senior officials have stated no draft is planned amid ongoing Middle East tensions. This consensus reflects high procedural and political barriers, including the need for supermajority backing in a divided Congress and strong historical preference for voluntary recruitment. Late-session emergency legislation tied to major escalation with a peer adversary remains a narrow pathway that could still shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$521,368Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The US military has operated as an all-volunteer force since 1973, and authorizing a draft in 2026 would require Congress to pass specific legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction—an action that remains absent despite the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act’s provisions for automatic Selective Service registration starting in December. Bipartisan support has focused on streamlining registration rates rather than conscription, while senior officials have stated no draft is planned amid ongoing Middle East tensions. This consensus reflects high procedural and political barriers, including the need for supermajority backing in a divided Congress and strong historical preference for voluntary recruitment. Late-session emergency legislation tied to major escalation with a peer adversary remains a narrow pathway that could still shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$521,368Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US military has operated as an all-volunteer force since 1973, and authorizing a draft in 2026 would require Congress to pass specific legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction—an action that remains absent despite the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act’s provisions for automatic Selective Service registration starting in December. Bipartisan support has focused on streamlining registration rates rather than conscription, while senior officials have stated no draft is planned amid ongoing Middle East tensions. This consensus reflects high procedural and political barriers, including the need for supermajority backing in a divided Congress and strong historical preference for voluntary recruitment. Late-session emergency legislation tied to major escalation with a peer adversary remains a narrow pathway that could still shift probabilities before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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