Trader sentiment for September 2026 U.S. tornado totals centers on moderate activity levels, with market-implied odds favoring the 25-49 and 50-74 bins. Early-month developments, including 29 local storm reports and 10 confirmed damage paths from September 4-14 across regions from the Gulf Coast to the Midwest and Northeast, have elevated preliminary counts to 28 by mid-month per Storm Prediction Center data. This exceeds typical early-September pacing in a month whose climatological average stands near 66, though activity often ties to landfalling tropical systems or strong mid-latitude setups that have been limited so far. With the jet stream transition and fewer remaining days, model consensus points to subdued late-month contributions, supporting trader consensus around near- or slightly below-average totals while acknowledging forecast uncertainty in steering patterns and any late tropical influences.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTornados nos EUA em setembro de 2026
Tornados nos EUA em setembro de 2026
25 - 49 70%
50 - 74 38%
75 - 124 15%
Menos de 25 3.2%
NOVO
NOVO
14 out 2026
Menos de 25
3%
25 - 49
70%
50 - 74
38%
75 - 124
15%
125 ou mais
3%
25 - 49 70%
50 - 74 38%
75 - 124 15%
Menos de 25 3.2%
NOVO
NOVO
14 out 2026
Menos de 25
$50 Vol.
3%
25 - 49
$0 Vol.
70%
50 - 74
$0 Vol.
38%
75 - 124
$22 Vol.
15%
125 ou mais
$45 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment for September 2026 U.S. tornado totals centers on moderate activity levels, with market-implied odds favoring the 25-49 and 50-74 bins. Early-month developments, including 29 local storm reports and 10 confirmed damage paths from September 4-14 across regions from the Gulf Coast to the Midwest and Northeast, have elevated preliminary counts to 28 by mid-month per Storm Prediction Center data. This exceeds typical early-September pacing in a month whose climatological average stands near 66, though activity often ties to landfalling tropical systems or strong mid-latitude setups that have been limited so far. With the jet stream transition and fewer remaining days, model consensus points to subdued late-month contributions, supporting trader consensus around near- or slightly below-average totals while acknowledging forecast uncertainty in steering patterns and any late tropical influences.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Volume
$118Data de Término
14 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment for September 2026 U.S. tornado totals centers on moderate activity levels, with market-implied odds favoring the 25-49 and 50-74 bins. Early-month developments, including 29 local storm reports and 10 confirmed damage paths from September 4-14 across regions from the Gulf Coast to the Midwest and Northeast, have elevated preliminary counts to 28 by mid-month per Storm Prediction Center data. This exceeds typical early-September pacing in a month whose climatological average stands near 66, though activity often ties to landfalling tropical systems or strong mid-latitude setups that have been limited so far. With the jet stream transition and fewer remaining days, model consensus points to subdued late-month contributions, supporting trader consensus around near- or slightly below-average totals while acknowledging forecast uncertainty in steering patterns and any late tropical influences.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$118Data de Término
14 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for September 2026 U.S. tornado totals centers on moderate activity levels, with market-implied odds favoring the 25-49 and 50-74 bins. Early-month developments, including 29 local storm reports and 10 confirmed damage paths from September 4-14 across regions from the Gulf Coast to the Midwest and Northeast, have elevated preliminary counts to 28 by mid-month per Storm Prediction Center data. This exceeds typical early-September pacing in a month whose climatological average stands near 66, though activity often ties to landfalling tropical systems or strong mid-latitude setups that have been limited so far. With the jet stream transition and fewer remaining days, model consensus points to subdued late-month contributions, supporting trader consensus around near- or slightly below-average totals while acknowledging forecast uncertainty in steering patterns and any late tropical influences.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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