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icon for AZ-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
Политика·Выборы 4 ноября

AZ-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей

icon for AZ-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
Политика·Выборы 4 ноября

AZ-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей

Polymarket
НОВОЕ
Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Демократическая партия

$5,615 Объем

74%

Республиканская партия

$1,120 Объем

27%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic nominee Amish Shah holds a strong lead in trader pricing for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, reflecting an open-seat race in a competitive suburban Phoenix district where recent statewide polling shows Democratic momentum.** Incumbent Republican David Schweikert opted to run for governor rather than seek re-election, leaving the seat vacant after he narrowly held it in 2024. Jay Feely, a former NFL kicker backed by President Trump, won the Republican primary, while Shah defeated several challengers on the Democratic side. The district leans only modestly Republican and has trended competitive in recent cycles, with forecasters rating the general election a toss-up or lean Democratic. August 2026 polling in Arizona shows Democrats leading in key statewide contests, including Governor Katie Hobbs holding double-digit advantages, which appears to have reinforced trader expectations that the party can flip this House seat in the November 3 midterm. No major new developments have altered the trajectory in the final weeks before early voting.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$6,736
Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic nominee Amish Shah holds a strong lead in trader pricing for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, reflecting an open-seat race in a competitive suburban Phoenix district where recent statewide polling shows Democratic momentum.** Incumbent Republican David Schweikert opted to run for governor rather than seek re-election, leaving the seat vacant after he narrowly held it in 2024. Jay Feely, a former NFL kicker backed by President Trump, won the Republican primary, while Shah defeated several challengers on the Democratic side. The district leans only modestly Republican and has trended competitive in recent cycles, with forecasters rating the general election a toss-up or lean Democratic. August 2026 polling in Arizona shows Democrats leading in key statewide contests, including Governor Katie Hobbs holding double-digit advantages, which appears to have reinforced trader expectations that the party can flip this House seat in the November 3 midterm. No major new developments have altered the trajectory in the final weeks before early voting.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$6,736
Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Связанные

icon for Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу AZ-02?

Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу AZ-02?

70%
Да
icon for Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу AZ-06?

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу AZ-06?

83%
Да
icon for Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу PA-01?

Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу PA-01?

49%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«AZ-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Демократическая партия» с 74%, за ним следует «Республиканская партия» с 27%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 74¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 74%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«AZ-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Dec 16, 2025. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «AZ-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «AZ-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — «Демократическая партия» с 74%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 74%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Республиканская партия» с 27%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «AZ-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.