Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Elon Musk posting 280-339 tweets during March 24-31, 2026, with 320-339 tweets leading at 13% implied probability, closely trailed by 300-319 and 280-299 bins at 12% each, signaling tight competition in the mid-300s range. This reflects Musk's hyperactive X habits, averaging 30-50 posts daily in recent high-engagement periods like the 2024 election frenzy, where weekly totals spiked above 400 amid political memes and Tesla updates. Differentiators include potential lulls post-controversy versus surges from SpaceX launches or cultural clashes, with historical data showing 20-50% weekly variance; traders eye quieter spring calendar absent major holidays, tempering extremes like 500+ (under 2%) or sub-200 (negligible).
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено280–299 13%
300-319 12%
320–339 12%
340-359 10%
$110,242 Объем
$110,242 Объем
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
3%
220-239
5%
240-259
7%
260-279
8%
280–299
13%
300-319
12%
320–339
12%
340-359
10%
360–379
10%
380-399
8%
400–419
5%
420-439
2%
440–459
3%
460–479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
1%
580+
<1%
280–299 13%
300-319 12%
320–339 12%
340-359 10%
$110,242 Объем
$110,242 Объем
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
3%
220-239
5%
240-259
7%
260-279
8%
280–299
13%
300-319
12%
320–339
12%
340-359
10%
360–379
10%
380-399
8%
400–419
5%
420-439
2%
440–459
3%
460–479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Mar 21, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Elon Musk posting 280-339 tweets during March 24-31, 2026, with 320-339 tweets leading at 13% implied probability, closely trailed by 300-319 and 280-299 bins at 12% each, signaling tight competition in the mid-300s range. This reflects Musk's hyperactive X habits, averaging 30-50 posts daily in recent high-engagement periods like the 2024 election frenzy, where weekly totals spiked above 400 amid political memes and Tesla updates. Differentiators include potential lulls post-controversy versus surges from SpaceX launches or cultural clashes, with historical data showing 20-50% weekly variance; traders eye quieter spring calendar absent major holidays, tempering extremes like 500+ (under 2%) or sub-200 (negligible).
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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