Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise faces a nonpartisan primary on November 3, 2026, under Louisiana's majority-vote system for the 1st Congressional District, with a potential December runoff if no candidate exceeds 50 percent. Traders price the outright first-round victory at 94.5 percent due to the district's R+19 to R+20 partisan lean, Scalise's consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, and his substantial fundraising edge over challengers including Democrat Lauren Jewett and fellow Republican Randall Arrington. Recent candidate filings closed August 7 with no significant opposition consolidation or polling shifts, while independent and split Republican entries are viewed as unlikely to prevent Scalise from clearing the threshold. The Supreme Court decision canceling earlier partisan primaries added procedural clarity without altering the underlying structural advantage.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель первого тура выборов в Палату представителей LA-01?
Победитель первого тура выборов в Палату представителей LA-01?
Да
95% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Да
95% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise faces a nonpartisan primary on November 3, 2026, under Louisiana's majority-vote system for the 1st Congressional District, with a potential December runoff if no candidate exceeds 50 percent. Traders price the outright first-round victory at 94.5 percent due to the district's R+19 to R+20 partisan lean, Scalise's consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, and his substantial fundraising edge over challengers including Democrat Lauren Jewett and fellow Republican Randall Arrington. Recent candidate filings closed August 7 with no significant opposition consolidation or polling shifts, while independent and split Republican entries are viewed as unlikely to prevent Scalise from clearing the threshold. The Supreme Court decision canceling earlier partisan primaries added procedural clarity without altering the underlying structural advantage.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Открытие рынка: Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Объем
$1,601Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise faces a nonpartisan primary on November 3, 2026, under Louisiana's majority-vote system for the 1st Congressional District, with a potential December runoff if no candidate exceeds 50 percent. Traders price the outright first-round victory at 94.5 percent due to the district's R+19 to R+20 partisan lean, Scalise's consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, and his substantial fundraising edge over challengers including Democrat Lauren Jewett and fellow Republican Randall Arrington. Recent candidate filings closed August 7 with no significant opposition consolidation or polling shifts, while independent and split Republican entries are viewed as unlikely to prevent Scalise from clearing the threshold. The Supreme Court decision canceling earlier partisan primaries added procedural clarity without altering the underlying structural advantage.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Объем
$1,601Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise faces a nonpartisan primary on November 3, 2026, under Louisiana's majority-vote system for the 1st Congressional District, with a potential December runoff if no candidate exceeds 50 percent. Traders price the outright first-round victory at 94.5 percent due to the district's R+19 to R+20 partisan lean, Scalise's consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, and his substantial fundraising edge over challengers including Democrat Lauren Jewett and fellow Republican Randall Arrington. Recent candidate filings closed August 7 with no significant opposition consolidation or polling shifts, while independent and split Republican entries are viewed as unlikely to prevent Scalise from clearing the threshold. The Supreme Court decision canceling earlier partisan primaries added procedural clarity without altering the underlying structural advantage.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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