Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for central Texas points to a persistent upper-level ridge sustaining hot, mostly sunny conditions into August 19, with afternoon highs likely peaking in the low 100s amid light southerly winds and high humidity. This setup aligns with peak summer climatology for Austin, where average daily maxima reach 96–99 °F but frequently exceed 100 °F under similar high-pressure regimes, pushing the 102–103 °F bin to 53.5 % market-implied odds. Ensemble consensus shows limited cooling or convective disruption through the period, though minor forecast shifts in dew points or boundary-layer mixing could adjust the exact peak by a degree or two. Traders are weighting the strong historical precedent for triple-digit readings in mid-to-late August against the narrow resolution window of a single calendar day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Остине 19 августа?
Самая высокая температура в Остине 19 августа?
102-103°F 55%
100–101°F 24%
104-105°F 17%
98-99°F 4%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
19 авг. 2026 г.
93°F или ниже
<1%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
4%
100–101°F
24%
102-103°F
55%
104-105°F
17%
106-107°F
3%
108–109°F
1%
110-111°F
<1%
112°F или выше
<1%
102-103°F 55%
100–101°F 24%
104-105°F 17%
98-99°F 4%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
19 авг. 2026 г.
93°F или ниже
$237 Объем
<1%
94-95°F
$141 Объем
1%
96-97°F
$179 Объем
1%
98-99°F
$123 Объем
4%
100–101°F
$227 Объем
24%
102-103°F
$388 Объем
55%
104-105°F
$108 Объем
17%
106-107°F
$122 Объем
3%
108–109°F
$92 Объем
1%
110-111°F
$45 Объем
<1%
112°F или выше
$290 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for central Texas points to a persistent upper-level ridge sustaining hot, mostly sunny conditions into August 19, with afternoon highs likely peaking in the low 100s amid light southerly winds and high humidity. This setup aligns with peak summer climatology for Austin, where average daily maxima reach 96–99 °F but frequently exceed 100 °F under similar high-pressure regimes, pushing the 102–103 °F bin to 53.5 % market-implied odds. Ensemble consensus shows limited cooling or convective disruption through the period, though minor forecast shifts in dew points or boundary-layer mixing could adjust the exact peak by a degree or two. Traders are weighting the strong historical precedent for triple-digit readings in mid-to-late August against the narrow resolution window of a single calendar day.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Объем
$1,953Дата окончания
19 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for central Texas points to a persistent upper-level ridge sustaining hot, mostly sunny conditions into August 19, with afternoon highs likely peaking in the low 100s amid light southerly winds and high humidity. This setup aligns with peak summer climatology for Austin, where average daily maxima reach 96–99 °F but frequently exceed 100 °F under similar high-pressure regimes, pushing the 102–103 °F bin to 53.5 % market-implied odds. Ensemble consensus shows limited cooling or convective disruption through the period, though minor forecast shifts in dew points or boundary-layer mixing could adjust the exact peak by a degree or two. Traders are weighting the strong historical precedent for triple-digit readings in mid-to-late August against the narrow resolution window of a single calendar day.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$1,953Дата окончания
19 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for central Texas points to a persistent upper-level ridge sustaining hot, mostly sunny conditions into August 19, with afternoon highs likely peaking in the low 100s amid light southerly winds and high humidity. This setup aligns with peak summer climatology for Austin, where average daily maxima reach 96–99 °F but frequently exceed 100 °F under similar high-pressure regimes, pushing the 102–103 °F bin to 53.5 % market-implied odds. Ensemble consensus shows limited cooling or convective disruption through the period, though minor forecast shifts in dew points or boundary-layer mixing could adjust the exact peak by a degree or two. Traders are weighting the strong historical precedent for triple-digit readings in mid-to-late August against the narrow resolution window of a single calendar day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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